US Aug. auto sales may be highest since Apr. '08
- Source: Global Times
- [14:04 September 01 2009]
- Comments
US auto sales in August probably will run at the highest rate since April 2008 after the federal government's "cash for clunkers" rebates fueled demand.
The so-called seasonally adjusted annual rate for this month will be 14.3 million, the average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The figure, an industry benchmark, hadn't exceeded 10 million in 2009 until the incentive program began in July. Ford Motor Co. may post the biggest monthly sales gain.
Dealers whittled their inventory after purchases of almost 700,000 vehicles through the Car Allowance Rebate System. Sustaining August's sales pace will be a struggle for the rest of the year now that the government cash is gone, said Joe Barker, an analyst at consultant CSM Worldwide Inc.
"The CAR program has far exceeded most expectations," said Barker, who is based in Farmington Hills, Michigan. "A sizeable portion of the demand spikes in July and August were pulled forward from September and the fourth quarter."
August sales results, released tomorrow, will reflect more than three weeks of transactions under the clunkers program, which ran from July 27 through August 24. Buyers of new, more fuel-efficient autos were eligible for as much as $4,500 for trade-ins of older models.
Ford's sales probably jumped 33 percent, according to 8 analysts. Toyota Motor Corp.'s 8.9 percent increase and Honda Motor Co.'s 3.2 percent climb would be their first gains this year, based on estimates from 4 analysts.
GM, Chrysler
General Motors Co. fell 16 percent and Chrysler Group LLC dropped 5.5 percent, according to 8 analysts. Neither automaker had a vehicle among the 10 best sellers under the government program. Nissan Motor Co., with 1 vehicle among the top 10, slid 8.8 percent, according to four analysts.
The annual sales rate is important to the auto industry because manufacturers, suppliers and dealers use it to compare monthly totals by taking into account seasonal buying patterns. The rate, known as SAAR, is an estimate of full-year deliveries based on an extrapolation from any given month.
US auto sales fell to 13.2 million in 2008 after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.
August vehicle purchases under the clunkers program may have totaled 525,000, Christopher Ceraso, a New York-based analyst with Credit Suisse, wrote in an Aug. 27 note. Of those transactions, about 15 percent would have occurred in August without the incentive program, he wrote.
(Bloomberg)
