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US President Donald Trump officially kicked off his re-election campaign last week, opening his high-profile bid to stay in the White House in 2020, coveted by him since he won the presidency in 2016. However, amid a number of issues lashing the political domain, his second term remains uncertain.
In more than two years of his presidency, Trump has introduced sweeping reforms in America's domestic and foreign policies.
At home, economically, his tax cuts gave more confidence to investors, fueling US economic growth. Compared with the average growth rate during the Obama administration, the US economy has enjoyed robust growth since Trump took office - a major gain Trump can tout.
Trump's second domestic reform was to dismantle Obamacare. It took great efforts for his predecessor Barack Obama to pass the Affordable Care Act, which aimed to enable more Americans from the lower and middle classes to enjoy medical welfare. However, the controversial policy, one of Obama's important domestic achievements, was quickly repealed by the Trump administration.
The third measure was to reverse the clean energy policy in the Obama era and promote fossil fuels. Traditional energy industries such as oil and coal serve as the political foundation for Trump, and it is obvious that his energy policies are of a political nature.
Internationally, the Trump administration is trying hard to undo what has been achieved over the years. First, instead of continuing with Obama's multilateral engagement, Trump has withdrawn the US from a bunch of international organizations and deals. The Trans-Pacific Partnership was abandoned soon after he took office. Second, Trump's mercantilist trade policy has impaired US trade relations with many other countries. Third, Trump's transactionalism has made the US and its allies drift apart.
Given what has been achieved in the past two years, there are a number of factors that may work in favor of Trump's re-election bid. To begin with, the overall economy is in recovery mode. In the last couple of years, US economic growth has accelerated and the economy has been performing relatively well. This is crucial for the Trump administration that regards the economy as the basis of political achievements.
Besides, Trump has basically shaken off the "Russiagate" scandal. Hence, a key obstacle to his re-election has been removed. Third, Trump enjoys a stable political foundation. Since he came to power, he has maintained a support rating of 40 percent. Fourth, Trump as a sitting president has an incomparable advantage compared to his competitors - he can take advantage of all possible opportunities to canvass for himself.
Although Trump has a number of advantages, the challenges cannot be ignored. His overall achievements are not outstanding. He has had little success in diplomacy, science and technology, education and medical care. Trump's "America First" enjoys a significant position in his diplomacy, reflecting a selfish attitude and undermining US global power and ties with other countries, such as its allies Germany and France. America's international reputation has also been damaged due to Washington frequently ditching deals.
The continuous changes of senior officials in the Trump administration and the high number of unoccupied vacancies result in policy inconsistencies and difficulty in implementation. Important officials such as the secretary of state and the secretary of defense have been repeatedly changed, making Trump's core team unstable. Influenced by the president's strong personality, the policies always lack professionalism.
Moreover, Trump's controversial policies on immigration and racial issues split political opinion. Opposition to Trump is rising by the day. American elites agree little with his polices. Widespread criticism of the president and his policies can be seen in mainstream media.
Trump has announced his re-election bid, but his current political achievements are not enough to ensure victory in 2020. Trump still has a lot to do in improving overall political performance, narrowing domestic differences, comforting allies, and enhancing the international image of the country. The road to re-election is long and tough for Trump. Time will tell if the mercurial tycoon in the White House has the energy and ability to meet these challenges.
The author is secretary-general of the International Security Study Center at China Foreign Affairs University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn