Arab world sitting on powder keg due to rifts

By Tian Wenlin Source:Global Times Published: 2019/10/16 20:58:40

This picture taken on Monday shows smoke rises from the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain, from the Turkish side of the border at Ceylanpinar district in Sanliurfa, on the sixth day of Turkey's military operation against Kurdish forces. Photo: AFP



Turkey's military operation against Kurdish fighters and Islamic State (IS) forces in northern Syria, dubbed Operation Peace Spring, has been unleashed for days. As early as January 2018, Turkey had launched military attacks codenamed Operation Olive Branch in the same region and struck targets in Iraq. Turkey's latest moves mirror its ambition to reshape the order and become a major power in the Middle East. 

Turkey has been looking East after its "going West" approach faltered. Ankara is trying to resurrect its influence in a throwback to the Ottoman Empire. The Treaty of Lausanne, signed in 1923 between Turkey and a number of European countries to carve up the territory of the Ottoman Empire, will expire in 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now trying to underscore the legitimacy of Turkey's inheritance of the Ottoman Empire from the perspective of international law and to establish a "new Ottoman Empire" with a broader scope. His foreign policy agenda is characterized as neo-Ottomanism. Under the strategy, Turkey has been attempting to expand its influence in the Middle East. Sending troops to northern Syria is proof that Ankara is seeking dominance in the region. 

Why can the Turkish army march easily on its Arab neighbors? The answer lies in the erosion of influence of the Arab world, which had once been the leading geopolitical force in the Middle East, and the rise of non-Arab countries, which once played only minor roles in the region. 

The Arab countries have not yet found a development path that suits them. Quite a few of these countries copied neoliberal economic policies of the West, which do not necessarily accord with their domestic conditions and have resulted in widening income inequality and deteriorating living standards. Misdirected reforms have led to weakened power of their central governments. 

The Arab countries, always at loggerheads, have grown increasingly divided. 

After then Egyptian president Anwar Sadat's sudden visit to Israel in 1977 and the following peace agreement signed with Israel in 1979, Egypt was isolated by the Arab world. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Described as sibling carnage, the move led to widening cleavage in the Arab world. All countries in the region opposed the invasion except Jordan and Palestine which sided with Iraq. 

Then came the "Arab Spring" in 2010, during which Saudi Arabia chose to stand with the West to oppose the Syrian and Libyan regimes. The hope of a united Arab world melted into thin air. In 2015, a Saudi-led multinational coalition intervened in the conflict in Yemen, which not only led to a serious humanitarian disaster in Yemen, but also made Saudi Arabia, the "leader" of the Arab world, caught in the quagmire of war with Yemen. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, in a sudden move, cut ties with Qatar, resulting in a public split in the Gulf Cooperation Council. 

After going through all this, the region, which once had huge potential, became increasingly fragmented and several countries such as Iraq, Syria and Libya turned to become pawns of other global powers. 

Against this backdrop, Turkey, Iran and Israel, which were once playing supportive roles in the region, start to have greater ambitions, turning the vast Arab world into a geopolitical battlefield. Israel's regional policies are getting tougher. Iran is proactively expanding its own influence. Turkey's aggressive regional policy also stems from a similar context. 

But these countries' political aspirations generally outweigh their actual strength. In the long run, it will have far-reaching impact on peace and development in the Middle East. 

The author is a research fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn




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