Supporters of Democrat Joe Biden wearing masks go onto streets in Washington D.C. on Sunday to celebrate Biden's win in the election although current President Donald Trump has not conceded defeat. Photo: VCG

After Democrat Joe Biden was declared victory for the US presidential election on Saturday night, US media have presented lists of contenders for the new cabinet in recent days and Chinese experts said that the candidates for key posts which would greatly influence the China-US ties under the new administration hint a tougher stance on pressuring China with varied and flexible tactics if Biden is officially confirmed as the new president.

Analysts warned that although many of the contenders listed by the US media are officials from the Obama administration and may maintain engagement with China, bilateral ties may not improve and may even get worse as these politicians would see threat from China's rise and view China more as a rival, experts said. 

Among the lists of contenders offered by the US media, candidates for secretary of defense and state secretary have attracted attention as the current China-US ties have reached the lowest point in four decades and military and diplomatic policies as well as trade talks will weigh a lot on future bilateral ties, analysts said.  

Contenders for the secretary of state include Susan Rice, who served as national security adviser and US ambassador to the UN in the Obama administration; Anthony Blinken, a Biden campaign adviser and Obama's deputy secretary of state and deputy national security adviser, and Senator Chris Coons, an adviser to Biden who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee. 

Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times that the appointment of secretary of state should be a result of balancing within the Democrats. With her experience and working capability, Susan Rice is competent for the position. However, being closer to Hilary Clinton, Rice is not seen as a person of Biden's team. Blinken belongs to Biden's team but he may be appointed to the Department of National Security Affairs. 

Lü Xiang, a research fellow on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Global Times that Blinken is more likely to be appointed than Susan Rice because he already has Kamala Harris to represent females and African Americans.

"No matter who will become next US secretary of state, he/she will definitely do better than Mike Pompeo. No one can be worse than Pompeo. Those professional and experienced diplomats that Biden can use would help fix the worsening China-US relations to a certain extent," he said.

"Most of these candidates are from the Obama administration and share similar opinions on foreign affairs with Biden. No matter who wins the position, US diplomatic policies toward China would diverge from the Trump administration," said Yuan Zheng, a senior fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Diplomats from the Biden administration may not abandon the engagement policy with China, which has been criticized by Pompeo as a failure, but they may also adjust the policy by acting tougher against China with flexible and varied tactics, Yuan said.

Rejoining the international organizations, fixing ties with allies to regain leadership in shaping the international order, emphasizing values of the US on human rights and democracy, and seeking soft containment of China with allies would be the focus for diplomats under the Biden administration and Biden's advisors on China policies if Biden was officially sworn in, Yuan said. 

Most of the contenders are seen by Chinese analysts as people who know China better with their experience of either visiting China or engaging in communications with China. For example, Rice visited China several times as national security advisor in the Obama administration, according to a Washington Post report in September 1, 2016. 

In April 2015, Jeh Johnson who served as the secretary of homeland security visited Beijing and talked with Chinese Minster of Public Security Guo Shengkun on counterterrorism, customs, immigration, cybersecurity, and maritime security, according to a release from the department of homeland security. 

Yuan said that different from some elites in the US who hope to reshape China by engagement, these US politicians who know China better have clearer understanding of the Chinese government's firm governing ability and China's political system. They see more threat from China's rise and regard China more as a rival. 

Aside from contenders for the State Department, competitors for department of defense have also drawn attention.

For example, both USA Today and Politico listed Michele Flournoy, former under secretary of defense as a strong contender for secretary of defense. Other contenders include Johnson; Senator Tammy Duckworth, whose mother is of Thai-Chinese descent, and who was assistant secretary of veterans affairs in the Obama administration; and also Senator Jack Reed, a longtime member of the Armed Services Committee.

Song Zhongping, a military expert and commentator, told the Global Times that there may be a hawk appointed as the new secretary of defense under the new administration as it has become a bipartisan consensus to regard China as a major rival and the Biden administration would carry on efforts in containing China especially on military strength and military technologies. 

Take Flournoy as an example, she wrote in Foreign Affairs in July that to prevent conflict with China, the US must maintain the military capability to deter China, especially on keeping technological edge. 

Song said that updating military capabilities to prevent conflict is groundless. There is also a voice in the US that the US could take all measures including wars to contain China. Therefore, under a Biden administration, it would also be the military's strategy to develop high-tech military technologies to cement the advantages over China and Russia. 

Whoever is appointed as the secretary of defense, he/she would not give up playing cards of Taiwan and South China Sea. However, China would take all measures to protect its core interests, Song said. 

Experts also warned that no matter who becomes the next president or finally enters Biden's cabinet, China-US ties would not be improved in short period and may even deteriorate. China should also abandon illusion on the US and focus on its own development.