Illustration: Sun Ying

Since the US and the Philippines held the first joint meeting of their top diplomats and defense chiefs in Washington in late April, some US experts have concluded that the standoff over Huangyan Island will deepen the US-Philippine alliance.

I disagree with such analysts. The Philippines' miscalculation of the situation will lead to escalation, but not a solution.

The Philippines has been assertive in the South China Sea dispute mainly out of consideration of its Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the US, which was signed in 1951 in Washington. And people have been focusing on whether the US is prepared to respond to its commitment to the Philippines under the treaty.

In my perspective, the US has not made the kind of firm commitment in the MDT which would be helpful to the Philippines in a standoff over Huangyan Island.

"An armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, and its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific," Article V of the MDT states.

The Philippines claims jurisdiction over Huangyan Island, but this has never been acknowledged by the international community. Even the White House hasn't made any statement.

Moreover, the US presidential election will be held in November. Political competition may result in all the candidates wanting to show a tough image, which means that the US will not take a soft attitude over China's standoff with its ally. But actually, none of them want to get engaged in a direct confrontation.

The most important thing is that the US still needs to prevent a strategic rivalry from spiraling into confrontation with China and maintain a healthy bilateral relationship. It doesn't want the dispute to escalate.

But we also have to notice that the US does want to strengthen its continued presence in the region by pulling more countries into its alliance through stirring up conflicts between China and its neighboring nations.

The US has expanded its military cooperation with the Philippines into maritime security lately and increased the foreign military financing to the Philippines to $30 million this year, double what was initially budgeted.

Meanwhile, the US has also declared its national interest in freedom of navigation and the peaceful settlement of disputes in the South China Sea. In fact, the US has hedged on the South China Sea. It is still trying to find a balance.

However, the Philippines has already taken bold steps and assumes that the US will fulfill its treaty obligation to offer assistance if conflict breaks out, while in fact the US is treading a delicate diplomatic line.

The Philippines should not be too assertive over the ambiguous signals that the US has sent over by providing more patrol boats and aircraft. The only way to break the standoff and solve the dispute is to go back to the negotiation table and talk with China directly.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Li Ying based on an interview with Gu Guoliang, an expert on arms control with the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. liying0101@globaltimes.com.cn