US influence grows as Myanmar reforms
Kenton Clymer
Editor's Note:
The US resumed diplomatic relations with Myanmar at the ambassadorial level recently. Also, the US gave permission for US companies to invest in Myanmar. What were the considerations for this change? Will the warming of the bilateral relationship between US and Myanmar alienate the ties between China and Myanmar? Global Times (GT) reporter Shu Meng talked to Zhuang Guotu (Zhuang), dean of the School of Southeast Asian Studies at Xiamen University, Trevor Wilson (Wilson), a visiting fellow in the School of International, Political and Strategic Studies, College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University, and Kenton Clymer (Clymer), a presidential research professor in the Department of History at Northern Illinois University, on these issues.
GT: After the historic visit US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid to Myanmar last year, the attitude of the US quickly shifted. Why?
Zhuang: After the limited implementation of democratization, we can see that the new government has had good interactions with Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD). Suu Kyi called for the West to weaken or even abolish sanctions and received a positive response from Europe and the US.
The US gave permission for US companies to invest in Myanmar. Resuming diplomatic relations with Myanmar at the ambassadorial level helps the US to control or at least lead Myanmar in completing Western-style democratization.
Wilson: The Obama administration initially decided to ease US unilateral sanctions against Myanmar after Clinton consulted Suu Kyi about adjusting US policy toward Myanmar after Myanmar's 2010 elections and after Suu Kyi was released and allowed to carry out political activities. The Obama administration decided to ease, but not necessarily lift or terminate, further US unilateral sanctions against Myanmar after the NLD was able to rejoin the political process.
GT: Some opposition groups in exile hold that the US action will hamper efforts to push forward reform by putting pressure on the government of Myanmar. How do you view this point?
Zhuang: The Myanmar opposition groups in exile take no pleasure in the good relationship between the US and domestic forces because of their own interests. If Western forces and the current regime cooperate closely, the opposition groups exiled abroad will not have great influence in the future. They will face the embarrassing situation where neither Western forces nor domestic forces will attach importance to them.
GT: Will the US put more pressure on Myanmar to reform?
Wilson: Myanmar is already expected by the international community, including the US, to achieve a very high standard of political and economic reform and change.
However, many international lobby groups on Myanmar benefit by continuing their campaigns of criticism of the Myanmar government. They use double standards, are slow to acknowledge that reforms have been introduced, and will not readily admit that much progress is being made in Myanmar.
Of course, calling for genuine reform and real progress is sensible and worthwhile. But insisting on perfect policies and excessively rapid change could be harmful to Myanmar. It could lead to much confusion and loss of control and direction. It could discourage the Myanmar people from supporting good reforms already under way, because they might believe the reforms could be improved. It could lead to loss of confidence by the ordinary people in good governance.
Zhuang: Allowing investment in Myanmar is in order to promote the democratization of Myanmar. There is no doubt that the US will interact closely with democratic opposition forces in Myanmar to urge the government on the path of Western-style democratization.
Clymer: It will all depend on what happens in Myanmar in the next two or three years. If reforms continue and become part of the polity, and if the elections planned for 2015 proceed apace and are fairly conducted, then I don't see that the US will necessary raise more matters, except probably ones related to the treatment of the minorities.
GT: Some believe that the resumption of diplomatic relations is part of the US "return to Asia" aimed at balancing China's influence on Myanmar. Do you agree with this point? Will the warming of the bilateral relationship between US and Myanmar alienate the ties between China and Myanmar?
Zhuang: The US has just recently started the "return to Asia" strategy whereas the pressure on Myanmar has lasted for 40 years.
The US influence on Myanmar could affect China's role in the country. China has influenced Myanmar in the past. But in the future, the US may have more pull than China.
However, most of China's influence cannot be balanced out by the US. China shares more consistent interests with Myanmar in project investment, financial assistance and bilateral economic cooperation than the US does.
Wilson: I agree that balancing China's influence in Myanmar was one of US objectives in normalizing diplomatic relations. But there is no prospect that US interests in Myanmar will ever be of the same order as those of China, which is a neighbor of Myanmar.
Unless the US resumed normal diplomatic activity in Myanmar, it would never have much influence over Myanmar policy. Through more active engagement, Washington can exercise more influence and see more results that are to its liking.
Resumption of US aid, trade and investment in Myanmar will help the economy recover, improve people's welfare, and give the government more options in implementing its domestic and foreign policies. It should also discourage the government from implementing harsh or unfriendly policies.
All of these objectives are in China's interests as well. Having the US actively engaged in Myanmar makes conditions there more normal.
Clymer: My guess is that Myanmar has changed its policy in part because it had become too dependent on China, and it doesn't like to be dependent on anyone. It may also have been offended by some Chinese business practices. At the same time, both Myanmar and the US understand that Myanmar needs cordial relations with China.