Only two days after South Korea canceled the launch of its first space rocket, the Naro, due to technical problems, North Korea announced that it would launch a rocket carrying a satellite between December 10 and 22.

The US, Japan and South Korea responded quickly, with Japan reacting very strongly by warning that it might shoot down the satellite.

Amid these reactions, China has been striving to maintain the stability of the Korean Peninsula. It has publicly stated that North Korea has the right to the peaceful use of outer space, and it has also urged North Korea to abide by UN Security Council resolutions to avoid escalating conflicts in the region. But it seems that no side is listening.

Northeast Asia has gotten used to the failures of North Korea's satellite launches and Japan's aggressive responses.

If a satellite is successfully launched by North Korea and Japan shoots it down, the situation in the Korean Peninsula is bound to intensify.

There's little leverage that China can use to modify the behavior of the Koreas and Japan. With a Cold War mentality still lingering in the geopolitics of Northeast Asia, there remain some troublemakers. North Korea has been cast as the provocateur, but its vulnerabilities are obvious. Japan and South Korea appear deeply worried about possible attacks by North Korea.

A North Korean attack on Japan would fly in the face of common sense, as Pyongyang would face massive retaliation.

 Japan and South Korea have been claiming the North Korean regime is unstable and unpredictable; however, the reality is that the Korean Peninsula has remained largely at peace for almost 60 years and the influence of pragmatism on North Korea is increasing.  

Outside observers believe that Japan and South Korea are expanding their military influence or covering up their radical policies by exaggerating the threat from North Korea.

Japan, especially, has been constrained by its Peace Constitution. It wants to get rid of this constraint by making use of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

The three sides have made the situation less and less favorable to all sides, and it is these three countries that will suffer in the end.

Reconciling all sides will mean that China must maintain a presence in Korean Peninsula diplomacy. Though it may not be effective, China will continue this role. China should try to prevent the situation there from being ruined by exaggeration and misjudgments.

The changing situation in the Peninsula also adds to the strategic mistrust between China and the US. The main reason comes from the pressure of the US' pivot to Asia and the intensified situation on the Peninsula.

If China and the US strive to make the situation there beneficial for strategic communication and cooperation between the two, Northeast Asia will embrace a better future. 

The US should be clear that the tricks it has played in Northeast Asia have had little benefit on the long-term strategic prospects of the two sides.