The fight between the Myanmar military and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has escalated into air strikes recently. Three bombs landed inside China, prompting a diplomatic complaint.

Although Myanmar is facing growing pressure to deescalate the conflict, this hasn't affected the country's diplomatic support. Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso pledged debt relief of 500 billion yen ($5.74 billion) and a fresh loan of 50 billion yen during his ongoing Myanmar visit, an attempt interpreted as targeting China. In addition, it was reported Saturday that Indian Defence Minister A K Antony will head for Naypyitaw later this month to "boost bilateral military cooperation and counter China's deep strategic inroads there."

Myanmar is certainly undergoing changes. Some analysts hold that China's backyard is on fire and an anti-China front is gradually being shaped in Myanmar. This exaggerates the impacts of these changes and underestimates the strength of the Sino-Myanmar relationship.

Myanmar's democratic transition has been favored by many Western countries. Some pro-Western forces within Myanmar also want the country to move close to the West. However, the current support from Western countries to Myanmar is either conditional or has motives of interfering in Myanmar's domestic reforms.

The escalated conflict between the government and the KIA reflects the uncertainty of Myanmar's reforms. Myanmar is suffering complicated ethnic problems that risk growing into a civil war. Those Western countries keen on promoting democracy in Myanmar are not adjacent to Myanmar, and thus don't have to worry about the consequences of Myanmar domestic chaos. But if these problems are not properly handled, Myanmar's democratic reforms will be affected.

Meanwhile, armed conflicts in the north of Myanmar endanger the stability of the Sino-Myanmar border region. China should be more actively engaged in helping Myanmar solve domestic troubles. It should prepare for a possible rush of refugees into the country as well as play a bigger role in promoting peace negotiations through offering mediation, assistance and a place for negotiations. 

The growing rapport between Myanmar and the West could influence Sino-Myanmar relations and put pressure on China's strategic space. But as China is now Myanmar's biggest investor and second biggest trading partner, the two have considerable common strategic and economic interests. The traditionally friendly Sino-Myanmar relationship shaped by history and culture, geopolitics and economic exchanges is unlikely to be severely damaged.