The US and South Korea began their annual joint military exercises on March 1, which will continue to April 30. North Korea has taken a series of measures, including cutting off the military hotline with South Korea and attempting to convince embassies to evacuate.

In the past, the North has alternated tension and easing. First, it creates large-scale tensions, and, after achieving its target, it then implies the possibility of dialogue or negotiation.

Behind the current high-profile actions, I believe North Korea expects the international community to get involved in the crisis, and mediate to help it get breathing room.

North Korea continuously escalates its offensive rhetoric to draw attention from the international community. It hopes that surrounding countries can get involved and provide a way to ease the situation.

After April, the situation in the Korean Peninsula may be more relaxed.

The US and South Korea have claimed that they will resolutely fight back if the North launches a military provocation. Once there is an armed conflict, North Korea may suffer greater losses. South Korea is unlikely to escalate it into a full-scale war, since it knows well that the entire nation will pay a painful price if it uses force to achieve reunification.

The US also wants to maintain the status quo on the peninsula. It uses the North Korean problem as an excuse to adjust its Asia-Pacific strategy without devoting more energy or resources. The US tries its best to shirk its responsibilities for the current failures in solving North Korea's nuclear problem and urges China to take more responsibilities.

After South Korean President Park Geun-hye took office, South Korea's policy toward North Korea has taken a different path from the US. Park has said that if North Korea returns to the right path, South Korea will improve the relationship with it through promoting a confidence-building process.

China's policy toward North Korea is in the process of adjustment. The differences between US and South Korean policy toward North Korea create external conditions for China's North Korean policy transformation.

China can continue to impose necessary sanctions on North Korea to make North Korea deeply aware of the importance of outside assistance and the strategic significance of China's support.

Such pressure should push North Korea to ease relationship with South Korea. Then the next step for China is to persuade North Korea and South Korea to hold dialogues and offer North Korea a way out.



The author is an associate professor of the Department of International Relations at Nankai University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn