North Korea yesterday warned foreigners and foreign organizations in South Korea to take evacuation measures in case a war breaks out. According to media reports, the North is planning to test-launch a mid-range Musudan missile. Some South Korean media even reported that the North would conduct its fourth nuclear test.

The tensions the North Korean regime is creating have shocked the world.

Although most analysts believe there's little possibility of a war in the Korean Peninsula, heated discussions over the risk of war have affected the situation in Northeast Asia. The outside world is not sure whether the North's young leader truly understands the implications of playing the "war" card. Many believe the Korean Peninsula is experiencing a special test.

Chinese scholars believe that Pyongyang does not want a war. Its aim is to turn the Korean Armistice Agreement into a peace treaty and acquire long-term security. Some think that Pyongyang is taking the extreme move to push the international community into accepting its demands.

As the US and South Korea are seemingly softening their stances, there are predictions of a turning point in the matter.

But the crisis in the Korean Peninsula is not a set script. No one knows whether the situation will get out of control. When North Korea acts too fiercely, extreme uncertainties will be added to the whole situation.

The North's regime treats nuclear weapons as treasure. These weapons encourage the country more than they have deterred its rivals.

North Korea should be able to acknowledge the whole situation and use its strategy wisely. Its latest provocation is further damaging its reputation and exhausting its future ability to use deterrence strategies.

North Korea's security circumstances are not desperate enough to warrant these unscrupulous actions. The resources it needs for economic development cannot be gained through those means.

As North Korea faces an ever worsening international situation and its national unity is highly dependent on confrontations with the outside world, it will be difficult for the North to adjust its development path.

China and Russia are Pyongyang's valuable strategic partners. But as the North keeps creating tensions in Northeast Asia which goes against the interests of the two, the favorable opinion of the Chinese public toward Pyongyang is fading. This does no good to the North's long-term interests.

After several rounds of confrontations, North Korea and the US-South Korea alliance have realized each other's bottom lines. Neither side has the will to ignite a second Korean War. The North has fully displayed its spirit of "fearing nothing." Its rhetoric over nuclear weapons or wars is becoming meaningless.

Washington and Seoul should also learn a lesson, especially Seoul. It should take a serious attitude to help Pyongyang build confidence to ease the situation, or Pyongyang will just continue to play tricks on the South.