A Sina Weibo stall stands at the Shanghai 2013 Chinajoy Exhibition in July. Photo: IC

August 14 marked the fourth anniversary of social networking site Sina Weibo, which now has around half a billion users. It's been a bumpy four years for the company - during this time the platform has transformed Chinese media and society, its users have exposed massive cases of graft, and the platform itself has come under fire from powerful individuals and organizations.

To cope with the rapid changes and satisfy requirements from the authorities, the platform has had to institute changes such as real-name registration, while at the same time fending off attacks from up-and-coming services such as smartphone social-networking app WeChat, known in China as Weixin.

Whilst the number of users is still growing, the pace of growth has significantly slowed and on average, users have become less active. Users also complain of quality problems, rumors getting out of hand, and increasing numbers of posts being censored for nebulous reasons.

Now, the key question has become whether or not the company can continue to play the transformative role it has had for the last four years.

The people's watchdog 

The highest profile contribution the platform has made to Chinese society has come in the form of anti-corruption. Whether it was for graft, mistresses or incompetence, the list of officials laid low by posts made on Sina Weibo is impressive - former minister of railways Liu Zhijun, sacked and tried for corruption; former Party chief of Chongqing's Beibei district, Lei Zhengfu, sacked and tried after being enmeshed in a sex-tape and corruption scandal; former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission Liu Tienan, detained on suspicion of corruption and former deputy director at the State Archives Administration Fan Yue, who was sacked over an affair with a mistress, to name just a few. These names not only appeared in some of the most controversial headlines over the last few years, but also revealed a key aspect of the government's recent approach to tackling corruption. Although the Communist Party of China (CPC) uses its own apparatus to investigate and gather evidence on corruption in its ranks, Sina Weibo has provided the public with an opportunity to kick-start investigations as well, which according to Song Jianwu, dean of the School of Journalism and Media at the China University of Political Science and Law, is in line with the government's interests. "The increase in anti-corruption campaigns on Weibo is mainly the result of the political climate as the government wants to crack down on corruption. Weibo provides an effective way for the public to quickly expose this," Song said.

And it's not just government officials that have been laid low by the chatter on Weibo.

Food safety scandals, unethical conduct by companies, child abuse and misbehavior by celebrities have all either been revealed by Weibo or had their coverage dramatically magnified by chatter on Weibo after standard media reports.

Song said that the impact of Weibo was largely due to its ability to sidestep standard channels to deliver information directly to a wide audience.

Given the fact China's petition process is often halted due to interference from local authorities, this immediate result can make all the difference.

Qiao Mu, director of international communication studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times that rather than saying Sina Weibo has the power to impact society, it would be better to say that it can provide impetus for grass-roots forces who already have the desire to make change.

Deleting enthusiasm

Sina Weibo may have carved out a significant niche for itself in China's burgeoning civil society, but it hasn't all been smooth sailing and the waters ahead are far from serene.

The number of daily visitors to the top three most popular Weibo services in China, including Sina Weibo, Tencent and Sohu, reduced 8.3 percent from April to June, according to an article by Liu Feng, an analyst at the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), published on IT news portal techweb.com on August 5. 

Liu Qi, a spokesman for Sina Weibo, admitted the growth in the number of users had slowed compared to previous years, but denied that this was because Weibo was becoming less popular. "We have entered a stable development stage compared with the first three years and we cannot expect the number of Weibo users to still grow rapidly after years of development, considering the total number of Net users in this country, which is just a bit over 500 million," he said.

Liu Feng pointed out that a decline in the quality of posts on Weibo could be one of the core reasons behind the loss of users.

"Weibo used to have lots of accurate and timely information that was 'harsh but real' compared to traditional media. However, nowadays rumors are starting to spread and complaints about the deletion of posts and 'sensitive words' have increased," Liu wrote, adding this resulted in a decline in enthusiasm for creating original posts by some notable users.

Qiao said that he has stopped updating his newest Sina account since his 11th account was shut down, and his account from Tencent was shut down in early August.

"I intend to stay very low-profile when expressing opinions on Weibo now, as I think I've been closely watched because of some of my comments related to activists or political issues previously," Qiao said.

"Sina Weibo might be more heavily censored than Tencent, as it is registered in Beijing, while Tencent is registered in Guangdong Province and seems to have looser administration, Qiao said. "According to my research and observations, different regions have different rules about expression on Weibo. This might also affect the number of users," Qiao said.

New kids on the block

Song also pointed out that the rise of WeChat is another key issue creating obstacles for Weibo.

"On Weibo, there are fewer chances for users to communicate with each other, and grass-roots Net users felt unequal when talking with verified institutions or celebrities, as they can only comment on others' posts. But on WeChat, the situation is different," Song said.

Song said that users on Sina Weibo are becoming less active in terms of the number of posts they make, but the number of WeChat users has been increasing rapidly, indicating a shift in preferences among users.

However he said that he is still optimistic about Sina Weibo's prospects, as long as they are able to ensure that relevant and precise information continues to flow from its large pool of users.