Chinese data shows Western misinterpretations fall far short of truth

By John Ross Source:Global Times Published: 2013-9-12 21:38:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT



Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a speech on the opening ceremony of the Summer Davos Forum on Wednesday, highlighting the "smooth economic development" of China through conducting structural readjustment and promoting reform. However, in recent months, a concerted attempt was made to present the situation in the world economy as "slowdown in China, recovery in the West."

The publication last month of data for the major economic centers during the first part of 2013 shows the actual situation was the opposite.

China's economy scarcely slowed, despite a negative global economic situation, whereas US economic growth fell by half and the EU and Japan remained essentially stagnant.

As examining this attempt at distortion provides an illuminating case study of the laughably low standards of the "collapse of China" industry, it is worth first analyzing the facts.

China's GDP growth slowed from 7.6 percent in the second quarter of 2012 to 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013 - a marginal 0.1 percent decline. In the same period, US year-on-year growth fell from 2.8 percent to 1.4 percent. China's economy therefore decelerated marginally whereas US growth dropped by 50 percent. China grew five times as fast as the US.

Over the same period EU economic performance improved marginally - GDP decline easing from -0.3 percent to -0.2 percent. Japan's performance over the period was hugely distorted by consequences of the 2011 tsunami, but taking the more meaningful comparison to the third quarter of 2012, Japan's growth increased slightly from 0.4 percent to 0.9 percent.

Therefore in the first half of 2013, far from China's economic performance being "poor" compared to a "recovering" West, the actual world economic situation was that confronted with negative global trends the EU and Japan remained trapped in very low growth and the US decelerated significantly, China scarcely slowed.

Entering the second half of 2013, data published last month for July's US and China industrial production further clarifies the picture. China's industrial output over the year to July grew by 9.7 percent compared to 9.2 percent in the year to July 2012. US industrial output in the year to July 2013 rose by 1.4 percent, compared to 4.2 percent in the year to July 2012.

China's industrial output in the last year therefore rose six times faster than the US. In July China's industrial growth was slightly increasing whereas US industrial growth had fallen by two-thirds.

Claims about a US "industrial revival," led by natural gas fracking for example, are therefore entirely factually false. Over the last six years US industrial production has not even regained pre-financial crisis levels whereas China's industrial production increased by over 90 percent.

Why was an attempt made to present China's position in the world economy as the reverse of the truth? Because if the facts were known it would be evident that not only has China's economy far outperformed the Western economies for six years but it is continuing to do so. This might lead to the conclusion China has developed a superior economic system to the West. As that  truth is unacceptable falsifications have to be invented to disguise it.

Unfortunately for those wishing to pursue this method, Western economies need accurate data for other purposes. Studying the contradiction between the economic facts for the first half of 2013 and myths spread about it by the "crisis in China" industry shows why the latter should be treated as one of the world's least reliable sources of information.

The author is former director of London's Economic and Business Policy and currently a senior fellow with Chongyang Institute, Renmin University of China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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