Berlusconi's 'return to center stage' does not cover his 'real' decline

Source:Xinhua Published: 2014-1-22 11:06:07

The recent return of Silvio Berlusconi to the center of the political stage stirred up much debate in Italy, making observers wonder whether the "decline" of the controversial centre-right leader has been called too early.

The 77-year-old media tycoon was stripped of his Senate seat in last November, after the Supreme Court upheld his tax fraud conviction. Yet, he still leads his Forza Italia (FI) party, which is now among the main opposition forces in Parliament.

In force of that, he met with the leader of the main centre-left Democratic Party (PD) Matteo Renzi Saturday in Rome, and struck a deal on some major reforms.

"Silvio Berlusconi's political decline is real and it has began with his conviction and his ejection from Parliament," Fabio Martini, political analyst with La Stampa newspaper told Xinhua.

"It is a slow process, however, and it will still go through many ups and downs. This agreement on reforms with Matteo Renzi may represent one of his ups," Martini added.

Federico Niglia, political analyst and professor of history of international relations with LUS University of Rome, agreed.

"I would be very cautious regarding the so-called Berlusconi's return to the centre stage," he said to Xinhua.

"He has surely played this round of talks with Renzi very well and he has given relief to his own party, which looked badly weakened by a recent split. Whether this will give him a 'new life' in politics, however, is much less clear," Niglia explained.

Berlusconi, three time prime minister and centre-right leader for two decades, was given four years in prison, reduced to one under a 2006 pardon act. On April 10, a court in Milan will decide whether he should be allowed to serve this sentence by doing community service.

In force of a 2012 anti-corruption law, furthermore, Berlusconi is now formally ineligible for Parliament. Even so, the way towards comprehensive reforms seems to go necessarily through him.

"A conviction and an ejection from Parliament would have put an immediate end to his role in politics in many Western countries. Public morality would have required it," Martini explained, noting "This has not happened in Italy."

So far ethical standards were not enough to deprive Berlusconi of his role, nor was the split of FI party that occurred after Berlusconi pulled out of the government and moved to opposition.

"From this point of view, Matteo Renzi's decision to deal with him was a pragmatic one," Martini said.

Under the agreement struck on Saturday, FI party would back the electoral system's reform, which is considered as the most urgent reform in Italian politics. The current law was partially overturned by the Supreme Court, and it has been blamed for fuelling chronic instability.

A core issue is currently related to Renzi's ability to deal with Berlusconi on the reform agenda without being overcome by him. Many Italian leftist leaders have tried to do so, but were unsuccessful.

"These reforms will have to pass through many discussions and votes before being implemented, and Renzi must be strong enough to avoid even the smallest changes. If not, the agreement with Berlusconi will fail," Martini said.

However, Berlusconi is undoubtedly less strong than before and to deal with him should be easier, professor Niglia underlined. "I would not expect him to 'eat' Renzi up and spoil the reform agenda, not because he is incapable of doing so, rather because this is not in his own interests."

Posted in: Europe

blog comments powered by Disqus