Kerry faces strategic dilemma from truculent Japan on diplomatic tour

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-2-12 20:03:02

US Secretary of State John Kerry is set to kick off Thursday his fifth visit to Asia since he assumed the post over a year ago. The trip comes before a planned Asia visit in April by US President Barack Obama and after a hasty US trip by Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.

After a meeting with Kishida on February 7 in Washington, Kerry reiterated the US commitment to the defense of Japan if it is attacked, saying that "the US remains as committed as ever to upholding our treaty obligations with our Japanese allies." He also said that Washington "neither recognizes nor accepts" the Air Defense Identification Zone China established in the East China Sea region.

Kerry's remarks gave a reason for Kishida to boast the still robust US-Japan alliance in spite of a bump after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's December visit to the Yasukuni Shrine where 14 Class-A war criminals are enshrined. Speaking to reporters after the talks, Kishida said that the US-Japan alliance hasn't been shaken.

In light of the infuriating shrine visit by Abe, many, including a substantial number of foreign policy specialists in Washington, believed that a crack in the alliance had appeared.

However, it's not the case from a broader perspective, even though Washington expressed "disappointment" over the visit, differentiating its position from Tokyo's.

Abe has put across his diplomatic strategy of valuing the US while checking China since he was reelected, and he has made great efforts in enhancing and consolidating the military alliance with the US.

The relocation plan of Futenma airbase was approved in late December, solving a tangled problem that hindered the alliance for years. The revamping of guidelines on defense cooperation between the US and Japan based on a bilateral agreement last year is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

However, looking ahead, the Obama administration is confronted with a dual dilemma: how to deal with a right-wing Japan demanding greater offensive capability while Washington encourages Tokyo to assume more responsibilities in the bilateral security system, and how to maintain and enhance the trilateral US-Japan-South Korea strategic interest, given the fact that the already often rancorous Tokyo-Seoul relations are currently chilled by the provocative Japanese attitude over historical issues.

Japan is hoping to get rid of the postwar order and to acquire the right to collective self-defense by amending the pacifist constitution. It's impossible that the US will allow the constitutional revision or allow Japan to go on an ultra-right path.

South Korea is another key ally of the US in Asia, and Washington needs to both enhance the security alliance with Tokyo and Seoul to counterbalance the influence of China's rise in East Asia. Abe has undoubtedly troubled the desired East Asian alliance system.

Kishida's US visit was an attempt to strengthen the US-Japan alliance and to add momentum to Abe's drive to building Japan into a military power. However, the US is strategically aimed at balancing in East Asia.

Kerry's Asia visit this week is likely to appease Seoul. And his China visit will not be confined to the Japan issue but will largely focus on setting up a new type of major country relationship between China and US, and enhancing bilateral cooperation in hot spot regions such as Iran, Afghanistan and the Korean Peninsula.

We need to closely watch how the US will solve the dilemma as the clock winds down to April, when Obama will visit Asia, including Tokyo.

Nonetheless, China has to keep clearly in mind that the main strategic purpose of the US in the Asia-Pacific region is to prevent the rise of any power that can compete with the US. China needs to combine economic and strategic resources to enhance peripheral diplomacy, seizing opportunities to intensify cooperation with countries like South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Yu Jincui based on an interview with Li Chengri, assistant research fellow at National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. yujincui@globaltimes.com.cn

Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus