Wednesday afternoon is make or break time for Spain's Brazilian adventure as they face Chile at the Maracana in a Group B clash that could see the holders crash out.
Spain really have to win to stand any chance of getting into the second round and holding on to their crown. Assuming that the Netherlands beat Australia, given the sumptuous form they exhibited against the Spanish in their opening match this looks a good bet, then a draw would leave Chile on four points and Spain on a single point after two games. Even if Chile then lose their final game against Louis van Gaal's men, Spain would have to put a cricket score past Australia to right their goal difference and go through ahead of Chile in second spot.
The math is simple; win both games and go through. What is not simple is that they have to beat a Chile side who have all of the hallmarks of the system that the Netherlands employed to annihilate Spain in Salvador.
The Dutch won because Van Gaal opted for tactics that were remarkably simple and ruthlessly effective in negating Spain's biggest asset and the reason they are reigning champions, their midfield. Xavi, Iniesta and David Silva were bystanders as the Dutch bypassed midfield and looked to break rapidly from defense to attack. The Netherlands midfield and defense looked to exploit the space behind Spain's shaky rearguard, get the defenders turning so they were on the back foot and play in the pace of Robben and movement of Van Persie. This was done with devastating effect, especially with Van Persie's equalizer and Robben's second goal.
Holland played a high defensive line and swarmed the Spanish when they were in possession to win the ball back and break at speed. Pique and Ramos were unable to cope and the Dutch ran riot.
Chile are a pacy counterattacking team. Alexis Sanchez is fully aware of the plodding Pique and Sergio Ramos from training sessions. As a combination of Robben and Van Persie, the Chileans might be another nightmare waiting in store for La Furia Rioja.
Spain Coach Vicente Del Bosque acknowledges that his team "have to combat their way of playing because Chile are a team that puts a lot of dangerous pressure."
Del Bosque has said that Spain need to change something, but what? Dropping Diego Costa would seem the obvious starting point and overlooking Fernando Torres to play a False Nine, which could allow the midfield more opportunity to control the game. They can't afford to give the ball away as this Spain side does not look like it will score many goals, so conceding on the counter would leave them even more of a mountain to climb.
Chelsea newboy Cesc Fabregas hinted that maybe the Spanish will be more direct and more attacking, or "more vertical" as he put it, but is this a way of playing that these players know how to make a reality? If the addition of Diego Costa to the side was an admission of a need for a Plan B then is the answer not even more of a Plan A?
Spain playing direct soccer, which would be in line with everyone else at this year's tournament, would come as a great shock given the success the system has brought the country over the last few years. But need dictates reality. As Fabregas put it, "It is life or death, win or win. Beating Chile is our only hope: We have to win. If we don't, we will be going home."
World Cup games don't get more meaningful than this and we're not even a week in yet.