Demonstrators protesting against a land project stand on barriers as policemen stand guard at of the Legislative Council in Hong Kong on June 14. Many fear this protest that turned violent could be a prelude to the Occupy Central movement. Photo: AFP

Tensions are on the rise in the days running up to a civil “referendum” in Hong Kong that aims to push for universal suffrage to elect the next chief executive in the Special Administrative Region (SAR), which starts Friday.

Voters will choose from a shortlist of three that, out of 15 proposals by civil coalitions, won the most votes last month from 2,000-plus supporters of the civil disobedience campaign Occupy Central.

The campaign threatens to blockade streets in the financial district and bring the area to a standstill on the basis that a consensus between the central government and Hongkongers over democratic elections has not been met.

It was initiated in January by the University of Hong Kong’s associate professor of law Benny Tai Yiu-ting, after doubts arose over Beijing’s “sincerity” in allowing “genuine universal suffrage” – acknowledged as being one’s right to vote or be nominated – to take place as promised by 2017.

Broader notions

In 2007, the National People's Congress Standing Committee announced that Hong Kong could embrace universal suffrage "as early as 2017" in electing the next chief executive from a number of candidates determined by a "broadly representative nominating committee" as the SAR's Basic Law stipulates.

The Occupy campaign, however, means to push for broader notions of democracy. Without exception, the three shortlists, which are from the Students' Federation, People Power and the Alliance for True Democracy, suggest that any electoral plan starts with public nominations to replace Beijing's plan of a nominating committee.

Joseph Cheng Yu-shek, the convener of the Alliance for True Democracy and public policy professor at the City University of Hong Kong, told the Global Times that the three shortlists of the Occupy Central campaign do not offer Hong Kong people an alternative to public nomination.

"This is a way of allowing real competition between different camps … Only by doing so, will Hongkongers cast votes that really matter," claimed Cheng.

Hong Kong Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, on the other hand, urged Hongkongers to think twice over supporting any shortlist. Electoral plans encompassing public nomination could not possibly be a foundation for reform, said Lam on May 15, because they are simply "illegal."

The central government reaffirmed its "overall jurisdiction" over Hong Kong in a white paper released on June 10, reasserting that Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy is not full autonomy, but comes solely from the authorization of the central leadership.

Certain popularity

Billionaire entrepreneur Michael Tien Puk-sun is the deputy chairman of the pro-Beijing New People's Party. He said in a June 2 interview with the Global Times that a preference for public nomination is not representative of Hongkongers' views.

Recent polls suggest that the majority of Hongkongers are, indeed, in favor of the existence of a nominating committee, and this group is growing. According to a survey carried out by the Public Opinion Program with the University of Hong Kong in April, 51 percent of the respondents supported it, a rise from 44 percent in April last year and 28 percent were against it, a drop from 35 percent.

Moreover, there is a considerable number (accounting for 24 percent, according to the survey) who do support the Occupy Central campaign that is now under the banner of public nomination.

Brian Fong Chi-hang, an assistant professor of Asian and policy studies at the Hong Kong Institution of Education, said he understood why there are many people who side with the radical Occupy Central movement.

"Most of the Occupy Central supporters do not want the actual occupation to take place and are afraid of the turbulence that comes along, but they still do this because they feel this is their last chance for the central government to hear their voices," Fong told the Global Times.

But Fong called the Occupy Central campaign "impractical." Unlike the shortlisted People Power, which is considered a radical pan-democrat group, he and other 17 Hong Kong scholars (including the former chairman of the Legislative Council, Andrew Wong Wang-fat) who jointly submitted an electoral plan are more moderate pan-democrats. Their plan envisions a process that is both set within the Basic Law and allows competition, which Fong believed is the fundamental key to Hongkongers' approval.

Public recommendation

Public recommendation is the first step in this electoral plan. The group of 18 scholars said this is a means to collect public opinion for the nominating committee's consideration. If someone wins the recommendation of more than 2 percent of the 3.5 million registered voters, he has the right to run in the election. The nominating committee then decides who shall then become candidates - what the plan calls "official nominating."

But Fong acknowledged the plan points to a middle ground that is not easy for the central government and the pan-democrats to reach.

"For Beijing, the point lies in how they would like to define 'Hong Kong people administer Hong Kong' [a concept Deng Xiaoping conceived in the 1980s], in terms of whether they allow Hongkongers to pick from candidates from parties with different ideologies," said Fong. "On the other hand, the pro-democrats have been acting with emotion, which is not helpful in bringing about effective negotiation."

Constituting the committee

The Basic Law does not give a detailed explanation of who this nominating committee will consist of.

Rao Geping, a law professor at Peking University, said the committee is likely to be based on the model of the Election Committee, which now has 1,200 delegates from 38 industries in Hong Kong.

While Cheng, unlike Fong, is considered to belong to the "radical" side of the pan-democrats, he believes the point of the campaign is to help elect a new Chief Executive who is politically neutral.

"After the nominating process, we suggest that we introduce two rounds of ballots," says Cheng. "If no one wins more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, the two candidates with the highest votes will enter the second round. One has to obtain more than half of the votes to win. The fact that a candidate has to win such general support assures that he or she cannot be politically extreme in either way."