The pro-democracy camp in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) is divided over whether a civil disobedience campaign will take place on July 1 to shut down the city's financial district to make an appeal for electoral reform, amid criticisms and warnings that it may jeopardize the SAR's economy.

While an annual July 1 march in the city has been held since 2003, it is expected that the number of participants this year may be pushed up by an unofficial "referendum" initiated by the Occupy Central movement, which has been condemned as invalid and lacking in a constitutional basis by the authorities. The organizers claimed that so far, more than 700,000 votes were cast, but doubts have been cast on its credibility due to flaws in the online polling system.

Tai Yiu-ting, an associate law professor at the University of Hong Kong and the co-organizer of the Occupy Central movement, told the Global Times Tuesday that after the poll concludes on June 29, a proposal for the selection of Hong Kong's chief executive will be submitted to the SAR government.

He also admitted that there could be some loopholes as the vote is run by a non-government organization. "Repeat votes will be deducted after the whole referendum ends and the number will be smaller," he said.

The poll lets voters choose an electoral method from among three plans, all of which contained public nominations, while the central authorities said the SAR's chief executive should be elected through universal suffrage among candidates that are approved by a nominating committee.

In contrast to Occupy Central's initial plan to shut down the financial district in the summer if their appeal is not dealt with, Tai said the movement will wait until the release of a government proposal on electoral reform, which is due at the end of 2014, to decide whether to go through with the plan.

However, Chow Yong-kang, the convener of another pro-democracy group, the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS), told the Global Times that he couldn't rule out the possibility of blocking the financial district on July 1.

Chow said thousands of college students are expected to take to the streets on that day, and may start to occupy the central area depending on the government's attitude toward the referendum.

Tai said he and Chan Kin-man, another organizer of the Occupy Central movement, have been attempting to persuade other groups, including the HKFS, to not launch the occupation on July 1.

But Chow said Tai and his organization will be blamed if they don't follow the students, should they launch the campaign on July 1.

Differences between the pro-democracy groups also include their positions on electoral reform.

"In fact, we don't really need public nomination and if the government would offer an electoral plan that allows Hongkongers to choose candidates with different political backgrounds, we won't occupy central," Tai said.

However, Chow insisted that public nomination is "a must."

Differences have occurred within the pro-democracy groups and some mild ones will be pushed or even "hijacked" possibly pushing the situation out of control, a political science professor in Hong Kong, who requested anonymity, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

"The Occupy Central campaign will only make the current Hong Kong political groups more divided and make the political situation more chaotic, and that will not only fail to push democracy, but will certainly influence Hong Kong's long-term development in various aspects," the professor said.

Yam Chi-kwong, former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and a renowned economist, said in a preface to his latest book, which was released Monday, that the central government has been trying to reduce the Chinese mainland's excessive dependency on the SAR in its global financial activities by establishing a trial free trade zone in Shanghai and offshore yuan centers overseas.

"Perhaps Hong Kong's political development is encroaching on national leaders' confidence in Hong Kong," Yam warned, indicating a potentially weakened competitive edge for the city.

Mok Kin-wing, deputy executive director of the Hong Kong Department Stores and Commercial Staff General Union, told the Global Times that participants in Occupy Central are trying to use illegal means to pursue a political purpose that would pose great threats to tourism in Hong Kong.

Tourists won't go to Central due to a fear of violence; department store employees wouldn't be able to work under a paralyzed traffic system in Central; and the revenue of the restaurants and shopping malls in the financial street would witness a distinct drop, he said.

According to an estimate by Francis Lui, deputy director of the business school at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Occupy Central protest would incur a total economic loss of $206 million per day.

"It is highly possible that the Occupy Central campaign could get out of control considering the recent violent protests," Mok said.

Tien Puk-sun, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council and founder of the G2000 clothing retail chain, agreed with Mok by saying that young people and college students are easily incited.

But Tien also said the referendum, though it may contain some fake or repeated votes, should receive attention from the SAR government. "Now the government should talk with young people and explain to them the Occupy Central protest is illegal and communicate to them that democracy and the rule of law could be achieved in Hong Kong," he said.

Hongkongers want universal suffrage and the central government has assured them of that, he added, saying that a lack of communication with young people resulted in mistrust.

In the meantime, the unofficial referendum could very easily send out the wrong message, he said.