Legal obstacles are running out the clock on Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's quest to run for her nation's highest office. In mid-June, a parliamentary review committee, charged with exploring changes to the constitution, recommended preserving the part of the charter dealing with the presidency, dealing a blow to Suu Kyi. With elections due late next year, Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) under her leadership are at a crossroads.

The NLD is in a strong position to win the most seats in parliament in the 2015 elections. However, veteran Myanmar watchers are concerned with whether the party could govern Myanmar well, given the fact that it lacks capable people and expertise on governance issues.

As for Suu Kyi, the biggest obstacle in her way to lead the country is a constitution that bars any presidential candidate whose spouse, children or parents are foreign citizens.

In order to woo support from the global public opinion on a constitutional revamp, Suu Kyi lobbied for the amendment abroad in the past two years, trying to increase pressure on the Myanmar government, the military and the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The NLD also mobilized public rallies in cities like Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw to pressure the government to concede.

A considerable number of Myanmar people support Suu Kyi as the country's leader. However, there are also many, especially among the elite, who have defended the article barring her from the presidency. They argue that for the sake of the country's purity, it's unacceptable that the president has foreign relatives.

Any change to the constitution must have the support of the necessary 75 percent of lawmakers, while by law the military is guaranteed 25 percent of seats in parliament. Therefore, there is indeed a rocky road ahead to achieve constitutional amendment before the presidential elections late next year. 

There are three possible scenarios for the 2015 elections. The worst is that the NLD boycotts the elections if a constitutional amendment is not enacted. Once Suu Kyi takes the plunge, the NLD will face division. Fortunately, the NLD has announced that it will definitely contest the polls in 2015.

In the second scenario, the NLD would win over 50 percent of seats in parliament, but Suu Kyi couldn't contest the presidency due to a failure to revamp the constitution. This scenario could have several possible outcomes.

For instance, the NLD could put forward another presidential candidate, who went on to win election. The candidate might lose, causing the NLD to boycott parliament.

But the most realistic outcome is that other eligible candidates, such as USDP leader Thura U Shwe Mann, would be elected president, with Suu Kyi as speaker of the parliament, putting her in the position to gradually push constitutional reform. This would also be in the best interests of the Myanmar public.

A third scenario for the 2015 elections is that the USDP maintains its ruling position at the polls. Given the strong desire of the people for reform, the chance that the USDP will win the elections is slim, but the possibility cannot be totally ruled out.

Western countries led by the US will face a dilemma if the NLD wins over 50 percent of seats in parliament, but Suu Kyi is unable to contest the presidency.

One the one hand, if they do not acknowledge the election results, insist on sanctions, but support Suu Kyi's presidential candidacy, Myanmar will fall into chaos, and the bilateral relationship will suffer a setback.

But on the other hand, if they accept the election results and cooperate closely with the new Myanmar government, the US government will face great pressure from Congress.

Democracy is a complex game, one that is best played when its participants strictly comply with the rules. With the elections approaching, wrangles among different political forces in Myanmar are intensifying.

Irrational remarks and actions are likely to erupt, causing public discontent and pushing the democratic transition toward stagnation.

Facing such a complicated environment, Suu Kyi and her NLD must proceed warily.

The author is a professor at the School of International Studies at Yunnan University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn