China-NK ‘alliance’ remains ambiguous

By Zhao Lixin Source:Global Times Published: 2014-10-19 21:58:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT



With the escalation of the North Korean nuclear issue and the rise of China-South Korean relations, the "alliance" between China and North Korea, based on a friendship sealed in blood, has been called into question. A bilateral relationship that lacks communication and interaction has come to a delicate point, and a follow-up judgment is that this relationship needs to be adjusted.

There have been debates over whether Beijing should continue to support Pyongyang or abandon it, which reflects the divergence of views among the Chinese public toward traditional Sino-North Korean ties.

The China-North Korea "alliance" was formed during the Cold War era, and has experienced fluctuations since then. The nuclear issue used to be a rivalry between the US and North Korea, but has gradually turned into a grudge between China and North Korea. The US has benefited, and North Korea is carrying forward its nuclear ambitions, making it harder for China to pull itself away.

Most recently after North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, China joined the UN in sanctioning North Korea. The dismissal and execution of North Korean politician Jang Song-thaek also subtly drove a wedge between the two.

Pyongyang must have felt the pressure from Beijing, but it didn't make the response that China had expected.

The China-North Korea relationship, now at an all-time low, stands in stark contrast to the rise of Beijing's relations with Seoul. Some people believe China and North Korea are no longer "allies" or have only normal relations.

It is difficult to make a fair judgment of this bilateral relationship, as national interest, strategic sense and historical affections have always been entangled.

Yet decision-makers in the two countries have maintained a tacit understanding when dealing with history and reality, which gives an ambiguous impression to the world.

A real alliance should always stay close no matter when making decisions, enjoying achievement or undertaking risks. Therefore, the China-North Korea "alliance" exists in name only. The fundamental reason is that they have divergence over their judgment of common threats and their expectation of common interest.

After the Cold War, the outside world believed that North Korea's territory and sovereignty didn't face a direct threat, so it had every reason to use its limited capital to develop economy and improve people's livelihoods.

But Pyongyang's political system had its own thoughts, and it realized that the threat from the hard-line US might lead to a domestic coup. Therefore, Pyongyang saw owning nuclear weapons as its only choice for survival.

At the same time, China has been rising rapidly thanks to its reform and opening-up, and has tried to maintain a good relationship with neighboring countries and major powers. But North Korea's nuclear plan not only worsened China's peripheral environment and helped the US' pivot to Asia strategy, it also offered excuses for the nuclear illusions of Japan and South Korea.

Any Chinese tolerance or understanding of North Korea in this regard will lead to the enhancement of US-South Korean alliance and US-Japan alliance. An emphasis on China-North Korea "alliance" is binding China's future with dangerous responsibilities.

The "alliance" hasn't dissolved given the continuation of the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty. But in reality, it has been stuck in a dilemma as the basis for the "alliance" is weakening. Remaining ambiguous is the best approach for the two, considering the overall situation.

The ambiguity will continue. China is far stronger than North Korea. Although the treaty regulates obligations of mutual aid, these obligations shared by the two are not equal. Only by realizing this can the two walk out of the current dilemma.

As for the North Korean nuclear issue, North Korea can easily make a bargain, as Beijing can satisfy Pyongyang's demands, but cannot bear its deviations.

The author is director of the Department of International Political Science, College of Political Science and Public Management, Yanbian University. The article is an excerpt of his speech at the Tumen River Forum held by Yanbian University recently. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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