Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Editor's Note:

The Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong, which has lasted for more than two months, has sparked hot debate on whether it should be called a color revolution. How should the movement be viewed? How far is China from a color revolution? At a sub-session of the Global Times Annual Conference held over the weekend, two Chinese academics presented their different views on the issues.


It's out of the question to ponder how far China is from a color revolution since it is already happening on Chinese soil. Yet it only takes place in a special region of China and has failed to meet the purposes of the organizers. They plotted to showcase another model to Chinese mainlanders, the indications of which are obvious to all.

The Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong, a type of color revolution, targets not only the region but the Chinese mainland in the end. It intends to target the administrative power of the region at the beginning, then provoke a chain effect in the mainland and finally seize the power of the central government. These have all failed.

But the failure doesn't mean that these targets won't be realized with more attempts or that such a local incident won't spread to the rest of China. The Occupy movement sends a warning that a color revolution targeting China has come to us and it stands at a stage between preparation and launch. This is what we have to face.

Such a revolution could possibly prevail in China. Regarding possibilities, there are two points that need to be considered. First, whatever slogans a color revolution holds, in nature it specifically refers to a Western-backed movement to overthrow other countries' regime. In this sense, a color revolution is completely different from the people's democratic movement in Chinese history.

So far, a dozen color revolutions, such as those in the then Czechoslovakia, Ukraine and umbrella revolution in Hong Kong, have all been street protests backed by the West in a bid to realize transition of power. What the movements target depends on the Western interests. There is only one condition needed - whether you are subject to the US-led Western interest group. Any country, no matter it is socialist or not, can be hit. China won't be left out since the West is unwilling to see a powerful China. This is reality.

Second, I'm not optimistic about the domestic situation that may lead to a color revolution in China. This revolution, whatever excuse it uses, needs four conditions to break out. First, the privatization of the national economy, which triggers social conflicts and people's discontent. Second, those subversives who control the direction of public opinion. Third, the collusion of opposition with Western forces and collusion of the leadership with all social classes. Fourth, funding by the West.

Hong Kong at present possesses these four conditions and hence comes the movement. In the mainland, these factors are gaining strength. As Hong Kong stands at the frontline of Western penetration and overthrow of China as a whole, what's happening there reflects profound problems in the mainland.

The mainland's growing economy and the rising position of the whole country on the world stage have physically prepared us to resist a color revolution and safeguard national security. However, the economic, mental and political conditions for fostering a color revolution are being prepared. Today's China appears to be peaceful but inside there are fierce conflicts of interests and thoughts.

All the countries where color revolutions have happened are not truly socialist ones, which many may not agree with. They either implement capitalism or pretend to adopt socialism.

There are ways to prevent a color revolution or uproot the causes, and to avoid peaceful evolution is fundamental. To this end an essential and effective approach is to stick to the principles and path of scientific socialism.

In a truly socialist country, people are able to enjoy the outcomes of development and hence embrace the government. The West can only resort to instigating revolts through peaceful evolution. Although many people now refuse to talk about peaceful evolution, its prevention remains critical to socialist countries as otherwise the color revolution won't be warded off. It deserves attention.

The article is an excerpt of a speech made by Song Fangmin, major general and managing vice president of Kunlunce Academy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn