Appeasing creditors best bet for Greece, eurozone

By Sun Wei Source:Global Times Published: 2015-3-15 18:28:02

Few options remain for cash-strapped country


Illustration: Lu Ting/GT

Greece is on the brink again. An interim deal signed on February 20 in Brussels which extended Greece's financial bailout in exchange for the fulfillment of a list of reforms has failed to bring the country real financial relief. Another round of technical talks between Greece and its creditor over its compliance with the bailout plan began Wednesday, with the purpose of unlocking more financing urgently needed by the cash-strapped country.

Weeks after the February agreement to extend the bailout package, the new left-wing Greek government is still under enormous pressure to find money. Despite the potentially catastrophic option of Greece's exit from the eurozone, so far the best choice for the country looks to be cooperating with its trio of creditors: the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Yet, given the awkward predicament where Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is caught between creditors and domestic voters, the reform process could be extremely complicated and painful.

Although a list of reforms proposed by Greece in February did help it win a short-term deal with eurozone creditors, which was supposed to bring fiscal space and financial stability to a certain extent, the country is still facing an imminent capital shortage. Nevertheless, talks on whether Greek economic reform proposals could be justified to unlock further financing only started Wednesday.

With several debt service commitments due this month, Greece has tried every means to secure funding to avoid a default. "In the space of the past week it has raised six-month Treasury bills, tapped into the bank deposits of pensions and public sector salaries, delayed payments to government supplies and approached the Greek subsidiaries of multinational companies for short-term loans," according to a report from The Guardian Thursday.

In a sense, the February extension deal forced Greece into submission. The Greek government must satisfy the troika of financial institutions with its reform plan before receiving any new disbursements from the eurozone. This also puts Tsipras in a dilemma as he pledged to voters that he would break from the austerity imposed by the EU. A Greek government spokesman said Friday that a referendum would be possible if eurozone creditors demanded extra austerity measures in exchange for financial aid, according to Reuters.

On the other side, the eurozone has been overshadowed at the threat of Greece's exit from the currency union since the leftist Syriza came to power in late January. Such an exit could lead to turmoil in the eurozone, which many fear might trigger a domino effect that could bring down the euro. That's definitely not the scenario other eurozone countries like Germany would like to see. "If Greece explodes, Spain and Italy will be next and then at some point, Germany. We therefore need to find a way within the eurozone, but this way cannot be that the Greeks keep on having to pay," according to German newspaper Bild quoting Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos.

Nevertheless, it should be pointed out a Greek eurozone exit would cut both ways. It is not an easy thing to introduce a new currency, especially in a country with so many economic problems. In this sense, the only option left for Greece is to continue seeking financial aid from its creditors by showing its commitment to reform efforts.

Such a process would be especially painful and lengthy for the new leadership. On one side, it remains to be seen whether creditor-imposed austerity will really help the country out of its present troubles. Some critics say that the conditions imposed by the trio do not suit Greece and are creating even more drag on its recovery efforts.

On the other side, in order to get urgently needed financing, Tsipras will have to slowly push ahead with austerity measures, abandoning his election promises to voters, which may cause protests and social instability.

But faced with no other feasible option and severe financial pressure, Greece may have to accept reality and endure more suffering.

The author is an associate professor with the School of Economics, Peking University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

 

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