Editor's Note:

Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a highly anticipated state visit to the US later this month. Where does the China-US relationship stand today? What's the significance of Xi's visit? Kevin Rudd (Rudd), former Australian prime minister and senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School where he led a major study on the bilateral relationship, shared his insights with Chinese reporters in Beijing recently.

Kevin Rudd Photo: Cui Meng/GT

GT: What do you think is the biggest obstacle for the China-US relationship right now?

Rudd: That is a very big question because there are many obstacles. But I believe a fundamental obstacle is that both countries need to decide what they want from their own future relationship and they have to summarize that in just two or three sentences.

Why? Because you need to explain to the people of each country: What do you want from the future US-China relationship? At present, there are so many different schools of thought about what that might be. In the past, I have described this as an absence of a common strategic narrative. That's really important because it's not just the leadership, the government, but also the people who need to know where these two great countries want to go with each other for the future.

These are difficult problems, but of course they can be managed, whether it's common security concerns in the Asia-Pacific, concerns about cyber security or problems in the bilateral economic relationship. But all those are subsidiary to the big question, which is, what is your common dream for the future? I think the two leaders are capable of working on that. They have made a good start at previous summits in the Sunnylands and in Beijing, and this third summit would be very important.

The strategic narrative should embrace the things that are positive and also recognize the things that are difficult, so that these things could be handled together and at the same time.

That's one of the reasons why my own proposal is a narrative of constructive realism on the common purpose. It's very useful to explain to people that we've been realistic about where we disagree, and we've been constructive about all the areas where we do agree and can work together. We share a common wish, which is how we strengthen them and reform the rule-based order for everybody for the future. That's what I mean by strategic narrative.

GT: Do you think the two countries are approaching the constructive realism on common purpose, the goal you proposed?

Rudd: The US-China relationship goes through ups and downs in terms of the issues of the day. The general trend however is pretty positive.

Anyone out there who is saying there is a crisis in US-China relations is talking nonsense. This is a relationship that's 36 years old, and even older if you get back to 1972. Secondly, you've been through some difficulties in the past, but you can get your way through these difficulties as well. The key thing is to focus on your common strategic objectives, that is, regional security cooperation and global cooperation in establishing the global order.

Xi's speech at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs in November offers a large basis of cooperation between the US and China on the global order questions. On the regional security questions, despite the disagreements over the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan, there are many areas of regional strategic and security cooperation in Asia.

Bilaterally, your mutual economic relationship means that you are inseparable. If you suddenly separate yourselves, it will suddenly affect both of your economies very badly. 

Leaders of both countries are very experienced and mature. The cooperative agenda is much bigger than the difficult agenda. So we can either focus on the glass being half full or we can focus on the glass being half empty. I always focus on the glass being more than half full.

GT: What is special about the China-US relationship?

Rudd: It is special for two reasons. Globally, the two of you together can either solve climate change or not because you are the two largest greenhouse emitting economies in the world and that gives you a special role. The second thing is, if you put the Chinese and US economies together, then you represent about 40 percent of global GDP. The future health of the global economy depends on how your two economies perform.

So your special role on the environment and on the economy is to achieve long-term sustainable economic development to create jobs for the world, but also to have a sustainable natural environment for the next generation.

In the Asia-Pacific, both the US and China have a unique opportunity to get together with other regional countries to begin talking about the details of what Xi has described as the "Asia-Pacific dream." The question is how to put flesh on the bones of this dream and how to color the picture. I think with a creative dialogue, we can do that.

GT: The US is pushing forward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while China is leading the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. How can they cooperate with each other?

Rudd: I think the US will succeed in concluding the TPP and it's very important for us to be able to integrate the TPP with the rest of the region. That's the next challenge.

Why do I say that? Historically trade policy has brought our region together. The worst thing we want is for TPP to begin to divide our region into two: the TPP group and the non-TPP group. So my concern is a possible division over trade. The challenge for the US and China is to bring these concepts together, once TPP is concluded. And I've always urged the American friends to keep the door wide open to China.

GT: What is your opinion about the performance of the Chinese economy?

Rudd: In the process of transition between the old and new economic models, you have run into some strong headwinds or difficulties. China is still contributing to global growth while many economies in the world are not. Secondly, its economic fundamentals are strong. Thirdly, yes, let's be practical, let's be honest that there are problems, but none of these problems are impossible to solve.

GT: Could you use six adjectives to describe US-China relations? How do you expect Xi's visit to contribute to China's relationship with the US?

Rudd: For present, it is positive, challenged, and it's a relationship that is only limited by imagination. Then for the future, it could be described as creative, cooperative and constructive, that is building things together.

My overall observation is look at the big picture in the long term and work accordingly to that to bring it about. Everyone in politics is always preoccupied with the challenges of today. The challenges of today are also important because if you don't handle the challenges of today, then there is no big picture.