A Chinese soldier stands guard on Yongshu Reef. Photo:CFP

The South China Sea saw choppier waters in 2015 than last year. Waves splash harder against the shores of the disputed islands and reefs. Sirens sounded when US military ships and planes made provocative intrusions within 12 nautical miles of the islands and reefs built by China in the South China Sea. In Hague, an international arbitration proposed by the Philippines against China is on the docket, which is long rejected by China.

The South China Sea is vast, covering an expanse of 3.5 million square kilometers. A game between multiple players is turning the region into a powder keg.

Turbulent sea

As China and the US are engaging in broader competition, the South China Sea becomes an epitome of the intensifying competition in the region. Tensions between both sides hit a new height this year as Washington committed unprecedented strategic assets and attention in this particular region to push forward its "rebalance to Asia" strategy, a geopolitical outlook proposed in 2009 by President Barack Obama to contain China's rise.

The drastic buildup of tensions in the South China Sea this year has indicated how the US, in face of China's growing influence, is struggling to maintain its dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to do so, the US is taking every opportunity, especially China's long-standing territorial disputes with some neighboring countries, to make waves in the South China Sea.

This year has seen China reinforcing its reclamation work on some islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The construction work is not against international law, and China has repeatedly said that it is for civilian and peaceful purposes.

Turning a blind eye to the Philippines and Vietnam, which have been doing the same construction work years before China started its own projects, Washington has employed a double-standard approach and rarely denounced them.

"China is doing what they have been doing for years," said Zhou Fangyin, a professor at the Guangdong Research Institute for International Strategies, to the Global Times.

Hyping up unwarranted "threats" posed by China and inciting its allies and other claimants to confront China, the US has used the excuse of freedom of navigation to make itself an unaccountable stakeholder in the region.

China has never impeded the free flow of civil vessels and planes. Washington's actions are basically based on a "presumption of guilt," said Li Kaisheng, an associate professor with Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

By strengthening its alliance system, emboldening other claimants, and foisting inappropriate international norms into the disputes to rock the boat, the US hoped these measures could generate enough troubles for China.

However, they ended up forging China to be more resolute to protect its legitimate rights and sovereign integrity.

The US has employed physical approaches to testing China's bottom line and strategic resilience, and displaying its support to China's disputed neighboring countries.

In October, the US sent USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, within 12 nautical miles of China's Zhubi Reef. Regardless of China's opposition, Washington says it will continue the patrol.

Recent months have seen US war planes and vessels trespassing in a dangerous and provocative way. Washington is even planning to assemble a patrol program incorporating multiple militaries.

Lawrence Wilkerson, a retired US Army colonel and former chief of staff to US state of secretary Colin Powell, told the Global Times that the US "is being far too belligerent in the South China Sea and thus reinforcing Beijing's moves."

The tension in the South China Sea is ratcheting up, one notch at a time when the US makes more confrontations.

"There are too many concerns," said Li, "The situation may grow increasingly intense if major players have no intention to control crises and conflicts."

Zhou also worries about the situation. "There is less space for multiple parties to shelve their disagreements."

Lawrence hopes leaders in both Beijing and Washington have more "empathy for one another," as "this is no time for a 'Guns of August' scenario."

Pending ruling

 The Philippines filed an arbitration case against the legality of China's "nine-dash line" to an international court at the Hague in 2013. The court ruled that it had jurisdiction over the majority of the case this October.

China refused to participate in the arbitration, accusing the Philippines of trying to "internationalize" the bilateral territorial disputes.

In a position paper, China said it won't accept any result of the arbitration, and that it has legitimacy to do so because it joined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) with an exemption that territorial issues are excluded.

Although China has expressed its stance on the arbitration based on international law, it has still drawn a lot of criticisms.

Jay Batongbacal, an associate professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law, argued that China's absence is not a good choice.

"China's non-participation … only adds to fears and misperceptions of China's ultimate intentions in the disputes," he told the Global Times.

Chinese experts have a different opinion. They think the no-show choice is the best decision China can make in this situation.

"It is a right choice actually," said Wu Hui, vice president of the Chinese Society of the Law of the Sea. She believes the result of the arbitration can be hardly in favor of China.

China has long insisted on shelving disagreements and seeking common ground in face of territorial disputes. Last August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed a dual-track approach, calling for bilateral talks in terms of territorial issues, and multilateral cooperation in terms of regional peace and stability.

Zhou believed that the dual-track approach is feasible, "but the progress achieved in the new mechanism should be seen and felt by the other claimants, or they will come up with something else that might pressure China."

Outsiders make it worse

The tug-of-war in the South China Sea will continue in 2016. The situation will only become more risky if the US and other outsiders, such as Japan, keep interfering in the regional affairs for their own geopolitical interests.

Southeast Asian countries should keep in mind that Washington's involvement brings only complications instead of solutions.

Facing the choice between China and the US, they shouldn't pick sides easily. Neither China nor the US, especially the US, should put pressures on them.

No one will benefit from the South China Sea becoming a conflict zone. Regional interests can only be maximized when regional players have the biggest say.

Read more in Special Coverage: