Beijing weighs TPP impact

By Wang Jiamei Source:Global Times Published: 2016-2-5 1:18:01

Deal related to US rebalance in Asia-Pacific: expert


Protesters and police come face to face as protesters close down streets in the city to express their displeasure as the Ministerial Representatives from the 12 countries signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement in Auckland, New Zealand on Thursday. The ambitious deal promises the elimination of nearly all tariffs among the member nations. Photo: AFP


China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Thursday played down the impact of the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade pact that US President Barack Obama said was aimed at countering China's regional influence.

"China has taken notice of the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. … China is studying and evaluating it," MOFCOM said on Thursday in a statement while stressing that China hopes "the various free trade arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region will complement each other and jointly contribute to this region's trade, investment and economic growth."

China is not among the 12 members, including the US, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, which signed the pact in Auckland, New Zealand on Thursday.

US politicians have long been calling the pact a measure to counter China's rising influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Obama did not hide the country's ambitions after the signing.

"TPP allows America - and not countries like China - to write the rules of the road in the 21st century," Obama said after the pact was signed.

The Chinese government has not directly responded to such challenging rhetoric, but emphasized an open attitude toward the emergence of parallel trade blocs.

"China will actively participate in and push for regional free trade arrangements that feature a high-degree of openness and inclusiveness," MOFCOM said Thursday.

However, subtle changes have marked the Chinese government's remarks on the TPP. In June 2013, MOFCOM said China is studying the possibility of joining the TPP. But in recent statements, including Thursday's official response, there was no mention of joining the TPP.

Instead, China has been highlighting progress in forming other regional free trade arrangements.

At a press conference on Wednesday, MOFCOM spokesperson Shen Danyang said that China will actively participate in and push for regional free trade arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a pact that may involve countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other regional economies, and the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement.

China has 14 free-trade agreements with 22 countries and regions, including South Korea, Chile, Switzerland, New Zealand and Australia.

Pressure on China

"Although the deal may create pressure on China's international trade, a comprehensive assessment is needed for China to evaluate possible options favorable to the country," Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Thursday.

Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng also said in October 2015 that "all the regional free-trade arrangements would divert trade and investment away from non-member countries to a certain extent."

It took more than five years of negotiations for the TPP, one of the biggest multinational trade deals in the world, to get signed, with its member nations representing 40 percent of the world economy.

The TPP is a new trade club independent of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will become a super multilateral free-trade organization after completion, according to He Jun, a senior research fellow at the Beijing-based private strategic think tank Anbound Consulting.

"In terms of its effects, there is a synergy between the TPP and the US rebalancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, which focuses on military and geopolitical policies in the region," He told the Global Times on Thursday.

"It is also worth noting that the US and the EU are now negotiating another free-trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). If both the TPP and TTIP are implemented, the US will play a dominant role in two multilateral free-trade organizations at the same time, exerting greater-than-ever influence on global trade," He noted. "Basically, the WTO mechanism will be replaced by the two organizations."

Other analysts downplayed the TPP's impact on China.

Viewing the TPP as merely an export bust for China is shortsighted, Park Seung-ho, Professor of Strategy at the China Europe International Business School, wrote in an e-mail sent to the Global Times on Thursday.

While the TPP will have some negative impact on China's foreign trade as the TPP member nations can enjoy lower tariffs among themselves, it should not be considered a measure to block China's trade activities, because it is impossible to do so to a large global economic and trade power, He said.

There is still a possibility for China to join the TPP in the future, but it all depends on Chinese desire, the costs China can withstand and the terms of existing member countries, He added.

"China needs to maintain economic and trade stability; and second, the country can promote other trade platforms such as the ASEAN and sign more bilateral free-trade agreements to counter the TPP's impact," He suggested.

Agencies contributed to this story



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