NPC deputy urges review of 2008 stimulus

By Chen Qingqing Source:Global Times Published: 2016-3-9 23:13:01

Evaluation may help avoid overcapacity, rise in local debt


It is time to evaluate the 2008 stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan ($570 billion at current rates), a deputy to the National People's Congress (NPC), the national legislature, said during panel discussions, media reports said on Wednesday.

Fan Yun, president of consulting firm Shanghai Fushen Evaluation and a deputy to the NPC, asked an official from the Ministry of Finance whether the ministry should conduct an evaluation of the projects financed by that stimulus package, according to domestic news portal ifeng.com. The report did not give the official's name.

In November 2008, as the global financial crisis erupted, China announced a loosening of credit conditions, tax cuts and a massive infrastructure spending package in a broad effort to offset adverse global economic conditions by boosting domestic demand, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

But the total estimated value of measures rolled out to fight the downturn actually exceeded 4 trillion yuan and this spending had many side effects, including industrial overcapacity and a local debt crisis, ifeng.com noted.

Opinion has been mixed on the effectiveness of the stimulus package, and it's been the subject of heated debate in recent years.

On the one hand, investors and economists have harshly criticized the package, saying it caused many problems. Among the problems, they've said, was that it inspired local governments to pursue high GDP growth numbers by launching many projects without thorough risk evaluation, domestic financial news website hexun.com noted in August 2013.

On the other hand, some observers have said the short-term stimulus helped stabilize China's economic growth.

Industries such as steel and shipbuilding derived many benefits from the package, but they've been facing overcapacity since then, said Huang Jianzhong, a professor at Shanghai Normal University.

"The government should learn from experience and evaluation of the projects, for example, how to avoid having local debt pile up and having bubbles in the housing market," Huang noted.

Robert Koepp, Beijing-based director of the Economist Corporate Network, a business advisory service within The Economist Group, noted that though the money provided a temporary stimulus, funds did not typically go to the most productive uses.

"If China wants to develop a sustainable platform for economic growth, addressing overcapacity and the debt overhang, along with supporting productive enterprises of the future, will be key," Koepp told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Taking another look at the stimulus-funded projects will also give policymakers a more objective and rational view of the stimulus plan, said a Shanghai-based macroeconomist who declined to be identified.

"However, it might be difficult to carry out those calculations, which involve political factors," he said.



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