Tensions in the South China Sea are unlikely to de-escalate with a new Philippine president in office, but prospects for China-Philippines relations are not entirely bleak despite the hard-line comments from candidates, analysts said.
Five candidates are running for the Philippine presidency, with Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte leading in the polls, followed by Senator Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay and Liberal Party standard-bearer Manuel Roxas II. Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago is currently at the bottom of the pack.
During Sunday's presidential debate, which was the last before the May 9 election, the candidates made assertive remarks about the South China Sea and Manila's arbitration case challenging Beijing.
Senator Santiago said she would call the Coast Guard and "bomb" the Chinese fishermen "in our waters" while Duterte claimed that he will carry a Philippine flag to the nearest airport on a disputed island and plant that flag.
"It is common for Filipino politicians to use nationalism to promote presidential campaigns, but Sino-Philippine ties and the South China Sea disputes may not necessarily worsen with the new presidency," Zhuang Guotu, head of the Center of Southeast Asian Studies at Xiamen University, told the Global Times.
Upholding peace has reportedly become the "common primary concern" of all Philippine presidential candidates and all five candidates have "opted for diplomacy as a more viable solution" to the sea disputes, The Manila Times reported.
More pragmatism needed
Prior to the debate, an ABS-CBN survey on Sunday showed that frontrunner Duterte, an outspoken, controversial candidate, was polling at 34 percent, a rise of 2 percentage points from the last survey, according to Philippine media Rappler. Nearest rival Poe had 22 percent of public support, a drop of 3 percent.
"President Aquino has close ties with the US and has obviously been coordinating with them to contain China - which is the root cause of worsening Sino-Philippine ties during his administration," Zhuang said.
Unlike Aquino, Duterte expressed willingness to pursue bilateral talks with China on the sea disputes at an elections forum in February.
Wang Xiaopeng, an expert on maritime and border studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that Duterte, as an experienced politician, is likely to implement a more pragmatic foreign and maritime policy if elected. Wang said this could make the prospect of a Sino-Philippine dialogue more promising, but he also cautioned that there are unlikely to be any major changes in Philippine-US relations.
However, Chen Xiangmiao, a research fellow at the National Institute for the South China Sea, warned that "the new president may maintain policy continuity and respond to the nationalism within the country that has already been hyped up."
The new president will find it hard to back off from where the Philippines stands, but it is also hard to do more on the South China Sea issue, according to Chen.
During the debate, Poe said she will also ask allies of the Philippines to prove that they are the country's friends and offer assistance.
However, observers warned that Manila could risk lagging behind its ASEAN counterparts in economic development as ASEAN countries could benefit greatly from good relations with China and close economic and trade ties.
"It may be hard for ASEAN to affect the Philippines' stance on the South China Sea, but it is constructive to see more and more countries expressing their understanding and support of China's position on the issue, which can gradually lead to more ASEAN countries promoting cooperation on the South China Sea," said Wang.