Although the exact date of ruling is still unknown, the Arbitral Tribunal at The Hague is expected to issue its final verdict on the Philippines' case against China soon. The melodrama, singly played by Manila and boycotted by Beijing, is finally coming to its climax.

It's noteworthy that the presidential election in the Philippines started Monday and the new president will be sworn in on June 30. Countries including the US and the Philippines are pushing the final ruling to be issued before the new president takes office, for the verdict will have little effect should a president that holds a different position from the incumbent government over the South China Sea issue be elected into the Malacanang Palace.

Many predicted that the verdict will be against China. The worst-case scenario for China would be that the tribunal rules the nine-dash line has no basis in law. But a more possible result is that some of the China-controlled features will be judged as reefs rather than islands. There is a 12-nautical mile territorial area around reefs but no 200 nautical miles of exclusive economic zone around islands.

It's anticipated that the US and the Philippines will launch a new round of verbal attacks against China making use of the verdict, so that the US could acquire more diplomatic and public opinion bargaining chips to contain China while the Philippines could gain an advantageous position in the South China Sea disputes.

However, the calculations of both may come to nothing. China won't walk into the trap of the arbitration case, in which territorial dispute has been intentionally packaged as a legal issue.

Scanning the history of Chinese diplomacy, as a reflection of its goodwill and generosity, China could make compromises at an advantage, while it could also firmly strike back at a disadvantage. Any flinch will tarnish its national image and even erode the legitimacy of its rule. Therefore, since China has decided not to participate in the arbitration, it has no reason to accept the final ruling. Decision-makers of the US and Philippines apparently have failed to grasp the logic of China's policymaking.

Given the diplomatic and public opinion offensives launched by the US and the Philippines, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seeking support from other countries at the international stage. China is expressing its strong will by doing so, although this perhaps couldn't alter the West-dominated international public opinion atmosphere.

This shows that China has no plan to make a concession. Obviously, if the US and the Philippines make use of the verdict to pressure China, China is prepared to deal with them. For rapidly rising China with its confident leadership has adequate means to safeguard its legitimate rights apart from waging war.

I am not optimistic about the South China Sea situation with the arbitration outcome looming. In order to avoid a regional crisis, the tribunal should be fully aware of the complexity of the case and make a prudent ruling based on an overall understanding of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

In a sense, this could also prevent a crisis concerning the UNCLOS. Currently, countries across the globe have diverging views over many articles of the law.

To quell the controversy, a consensus among different member states should be reached to amend the law, rather than depending on an arbitral verdict that cannot represent the will of all members.

If the verdict of Arbitral Tribunal is in the Philippines' favor, then I hope the Philippines and the US could maintain a low profile and keep active communications with China so as to alleviate tensions in the South China Sea.

If they make a big fuss of the verdict and force China to accept it, the South China Sea will enter into a new period of instability.

The author is a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn