Tsai’s mainland policies yet to be tested

By Zhang Hua Source:Global Times Published: 2016-5-22 23:13:01

Tsai Ing-wen delivered her inauguration speech as Taiwan's new leader Friday, clarifying the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)'s policies on Taiwan's future development, especially on cross-Straits relations. Generally Tsai's speech is within the public's expectations as she didn't make explicit her stance on "1992 Consensus" or "one China" policy, but showed some flexibility in conveying some goodwill to the Chinese mainland.

In her speech, she did not explicitly accept the 1992 Consensus, nor put forward any alternative. She hence presented an unfinished answer sheet to the mainland. In fact, the outcome is not unexpected because fundamentally pro-independence camp has long held a view conflicting with the mainland and have also been criticizing and stigmatizing the 1992 Consensus in the past eight years.

Tsai can choose not to recognize 1992 Consensus, but she must recognize its key connotation that the two sides belong to one China. Although the mainland will adjust its Taiwan policy as the times and the cross-Straits relations change, what will remain unchanged is that the cross-Straits relations fall within the scope of China's internal affairs and that cross-Straits reunification will eventually be achieved. Therefore the mainland insists Tsai give a clear answer on this issue.

Tsai's speech put forward some positive ideas that leave some room for the public to interpret the DPP's policies from a positive perspective. Tsai said she will safeguard the "sovereignty and territory of the Republic of China" including the East and South China Sea and deal with cross-Straits affairs in accordance with the "Republic of China Constitution," the "Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area" and other relevant legislation. Tsai also said that she was willing to engage in candid exchanges with the mainland on common participation in regional development. These statements provide flexible room for conveying goodwill to the mainland.

After all, the Constitution of the Republic of China honors the one China policy and the act stipulates that cross-Straits relationship is one between two areas of China.

Tsai's stance on the East and South China Seas is partly in response to the suspicion that the DPP may put the Taiwan-Japan relationship above safeguarding the Diaoyu Islands and the nine-dash line. Regarding Taiwan's participation in regional development, Tsai inherited her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou's policy to negotiate with the mainland instead of criticizing the latter for pressuring Taiwan.

In addition, Tsai's speech and her future performances are key to mutual trust between the two sides. For instance, how does Taiwan interpret the "Republic of China Constitution"? Tsai mentioned "Taiwan" as many as 41 times and kept using "this country" in her speech, reinforcing the public's cognition to "Taiwan subjectivity" and its "factual independence." Tsai proposed to "join the alliance of shared values," "deepen our relationships with friendly democracies including the US, Japan and Europe," and promote a "New Southbound Policy."

These are prone to be interpreted by the mainland as Taiwan's attempt to play the "freedom and democracy" card, to draw the US and Japan over to its side to counter the mainland, and to become economically independent from the mainland. Therefore, apart from asking Tsai for a clear stance on 1992 Consensus, in its statement responding to Tsai's address the mainland also noted its strong opposition to any form of "Taiwan independence" separatist activities and specifically mentioned the Anti-Secession Law.

Actions speak louder than words. The mainland cares more about the future performance of Taiwan's authorities. Tsai's inaugural speech elaborates the direction of her future policies, which however cannot be equated with concrete policies or practices. This has been exemplified by Taiwan's former leader Chen Shui-bian.

Specifically, the mainland needs to keep a close eye on Taiwan's activities. If Taiwan representatives make unexpected performances at the World Health Assembly that convenes on Monday, if the DPP continues to push forward the revision of the referendum law including a change in sovereignty status, or if Taiwan stands with the US and the Philippines after the final award of the South China Sea arbitration is announced, these will gravely challenge the goodwill shown in Tsai's speech.

The author is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus