Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

British Prime Minister David Cameron is currently facing the most important challenge in the recent history of his country and of his political career. On June 23 British citizens will decide on their European future. A "no" vote will signal the end of UK membership of the EU and lead Cameron to resign. For the time being, British and EU sources exclude the possibility of a new round of talks to find a compromise. Although this scenario should not necessarily be taken for granted, it now widely constitutes the basis of any analysis of future developments.

The result of the referendum cannot be anticipated. The opinion polling companies that so dramatically failed to predict the result of the British national election last year cannot be trusted. As far as the referendum is concerned, telephone surveys give a clear lead to the "yes" vote as opposed to online surveys which present a tight fight and often foresee the final victory of "no."

Within this context, Cameron as well as other institutions such as the Bank of England are anticipating a grim reality should the UK exit the EU. They warn of consequences including a recession and the dramatic shrinking of foreign direct investments. The British prime minister even says that a Brexit could put peace at risk.

For its part, the EU follows a different political communication strategy. It endeavors to show a rather neutral attitude and persuade the public that it will go on as normal - even without the UK. It is doing so while suggesting that relations between Brussels and London will not be as friendly as they used to be in the past. In a characteristic interview President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker told Le Monde that "deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms."

Politics play a critical role in views on the referendum and naturally some politicians tend to exaggerate in order to serve their cause. However, a calm and moderate stance is required. Undoubtedly, a vote in favor of Brexit will create an atmosphere of uncertainty and instability in the country in the short term. But the initial shock will be overcome in the medium and long term and new perspectives will open up. This is what many British citizens believe according to opinion polls.

Additionally, as Open Europe frequently suggests, almost everything will depend on future agreements between the UK and the EU. The repercussions of a Brexit cannot be fully analyzed should the content of those agreements be not defined. In that regard, the EU is expected to abandon its current indifferent rhetoric and immediately look for specific ways of economic cooperation with the UK if it leaves as it is doing with countries like Switzerland.

From the perspective of defense, the image of the EU will be certainly damaged as most military operations have been undertaken by the UK and France. A Brexit will be a serious setback for the European defense policy, as Germany will be prepared to replace the role of the UK. Nevertheless, from a broader point of view, the nature of Western defense will not significantly alter. That is because the UK will remain a NATO member state.

The UK is a powerful country which will be able to cope with the challenges of a post-Brexit era. Its partnerships with countries such as the US, China and the EU under a new scheme can guarantee its success along with forthcoming legal arrangements on trade, worker rights etc.

What is more important is to elaborate on the consequences of a Brexit on the structure of the EU. A withdrawal of the UK from the union will not be the result of public will in a period of crisis or urgent need. Nor will it be the product of persuasion by extreme right-wing politicians. By contrast, the referendum was first announced in January 2013 while Tories supporting Brexit cannot be considered unserious or dangerous politicians.

A Brexit might generate a movement with the participation of serious politicians in Europe who will champion a new idea of national sovereignty and partnerships with other countries and the EU, following the British paradigm. This new political model will challenge the concept of European integration requiring an immediate response from Brussels. This response should be the creation of an "ever closer union." The shock of a Brexit could possibly open the way.

The author is a lecturer at the European Institute in Nice, France. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion