Experts interpret Shangri-La Dialogue

Source:Global Times Published: 2016-6-5 19:48:01

Editor's Note:

The 15th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) convened in Singapore over the weekend. Given the simmering tensions between China and the US over the South China Sea issue, many predicted that the dialogue might be prelude to a China-US showdown. Great importance has been attached to speeches by US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo who led the Chinese delegation. How did participants in the dialogue see the addresses? Global Times reporter Sun Xiaobo interviews Chinese and foreign experts in attendance.

IISS Director-General John Chipman chairs the fifth plenary session of the 15th Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday morning in Singapore. Photo: Sun Xiaobo/GT

Jin Yinan, professor at the National Defense University of the Chinese People's Liberation Army

In his speech, Carter named US most advanced military equipment to be deployed in the Asia-Pacific, which doesn't coincide with what he called for - the cooperation, peace and security in Asia.

As US secretary of defense, Carter likened the current Sino-US relationship to the 50-year Cold War standoff between the US and Soviet Union in late May, which we haven't heard about for a long time. This has aroused doubts as to whether Carter's words represent the views of the US government in contrast with what has been achieved between heads of state of the two countries and whether the US plans to adjust its basic stand on its relations with China. I think Carter's speech in Singapore probably gave a clear statement on the US stand.

As two powers, what good can China and the US provide for the world? The US is best known as a military power while China an economic power. They play distinct roles in the world. But does Asian regional development depend on aircraft carriers or the economy? The region should be clear on this. China has done the most good for the region, as shown in its contributions during the financial crisis in 2008.

China is not a beneficiary of the regional security provided by the US, but has made tremendous contributions to regional economic development. China's focus on development rather than making the region a battlefield is embraced by most countries in Asia.

Out of his country's interests, Carter talked about China's "self-isolation" and frequently raised security issues and freedom of navigation. In fact, no country cares more about the South China Sea than China, as the majority of China's trade goes through the South China Sea.

China never thinks of blocking navigation in the waters and is the one who least wants the militarization of the South China Sea. It is actually the US that is militarizing the waters by sending military vessels and aircraft there and holding military exercises.

The US is the biggest troublemaker in regard to the South China Sea issue. In fact, if the US can stick to its commitment of not taking sides and staying neutral, and does not attempt to use the South China Sea issue to counter China, peace and stability will be restored in the region.

You Ji, professor of international relations, University of Macau

Carter used a softer tone in his address than last year. What may sound harsh is his repeated use of "self-isolation," which doesn't hold water since China has close economic ties with so many countries, including the US. Just on Friday, the Chinese and Vietnam militaries reached agreements on the sidelines of the SLD. In fact, Carter used the phrase not to target China, but to reassure countries like Japan and the Philippines.

What is impressive in Carter's speech is that this time he separated the South China Sea issue from the overall China-US relationship and Asia-Pacific security, such as his comments that the two countries share many views on global issues. I guess this was set by Washington. Previously he tried to hijack the bilateral relationship with the South China Sea issue.

Kung Phoak, co-founder and president of Cambodian Institute for Strategic Studies

Carter's speech is not new and is similar to last year's. Compared with his recent speeches prior to the dialogue, he used a softer tone. After all, China is an Asia-Pacific power and the second largest economy in the world. You can't do anything without China and everyone knows it, including the claimants, the Philippines and Vietnam. That's the way - find a solution.

Yao Yunzhu, research fellow at the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Academy of Military Science

The SLD is a good platform where China can air its opinions on hot issues. Therefore, the Chinese army will continue to send high-level representatives to participate in it. The international community is concerned about China's rise, which implies that China should put more efforts into explaining about its peaceful intentions.

The South China Sea dispute is neither a key issue between China and the US, nor China and its South China Sea neighbors, nor China and ASEAN, nor China and European countries, and therefore should not be a main topic at the Shangri-La meeting. During such an important international forum, representatives should focus on other more significant issues, such as how to cooperate and how to jointly establish regional security orders to maintain peace and stability in the region. Carter claimed that China will end up erecting a "Great Wall of self-isolation" in his speech, yet meanwhile he highlighted the "principled security network" from beginning to end. We hope the US can clarify its stance.

Currently, the bilateral military alliance between the US and other Asia-Pacific countries is targeting China on many issues. Where is China in the Carter-proposed "principled security network?" Is China included or excluded from this network? If excluded, how should Beijing join the network? We hope that while the US is criticizing China for erecting a "Great Wall of self-isolation," it is not building a castle to keep China out.

Lü Jinghua, research fellow at the PLA Academy of Military Science

Admiral Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of the Joint Staff Department of China's Central Military Commission, delivered a sincere speech that addressed a number of hot issues. He has expressed China's true thoughts to the international community.

Sun's speech is characterized by sincerity. In modern society, all nations, be they small or large, enjoy equal status and can play an important role in international affairs. All countries should strive to build a cooperative basis for equal dialogues.

Some argue that Sun took a relatively hard stance in his speech. It should be noted that it is impossible for Sun, on behalf of the military, to behave as a diplomat. For me, Sun is answering everyone's questions with sincerity.

Arnaud Leveau, research fellow at the ASEAN Studies Center at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok

I think Sun's speech was very clear. But I don't feel any difference compared with the previous year's. I think maybe because China and the US remain firm on their positions. They are speaking to each other, but they don't listen to each other. Everything remains frozen despite clear messages having been conveyed. From Sun's speech, I think China is trying to reorganize the regional security architecture with Asian countries. The US wants to reinforce their own security architecture where there is not much space for China. That is why everything is frozen. The two countries have different visions for the regional architecture. The region remains stable as of now, and we don't expect more escalation.

I was expecting more tension, but the speech by Carter showed some restraint. Maybe he had been assertive previously, but he talked about cooperation with China and other countries. So it was a positive sign. I was a bit worried before coming, because we might have been facing more tensions. Luckily, although all the issues still remain, there is no real escalation.



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