Uncertain economy deserves fair shake

By Hu Angang and Zhang Xin Source:Global Times Published: 2016/6/16 0:13:02

Illustration: Liu Rui /GT

2016 is the starting point of China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), during which Chinese economic and social development will face several major risks and uncertainties. Domestically, the country is confronted with puzzles including the decline of both economic growth and fiscal revenue, unbalanced development among different regions, the aging population and the growing risks of optimizing income distribution.

In international affairs, there are problems such as faltering emerging markets, sluggish global trade, prevailing trade protectionism, and the construction of a new type of international political and economic system. Meanwhile, risks in financial markets and difficulties of operating enterprises are both internal and international obstacles for Beijing.

When the Chinese economy is integrated with the global market, uncertainties from each side will inevitably affect one another. China does need to face those risks and uncertainties. However, although the statistics don't look good, still, with China's growing driving forces from inside, the country's development is gradually improving. The uncertainties of China's development have undoubtedly been overstated.

To begin with, we must evaluate China's current achievements of development from an objective perspective. If we calculate our economic growth rate, industrial output growth rate, consumer price index rising rate, unemployment rate and misery index through professional methods, and compare them with the figures of other nations, we can see that China's macroeconomic performance in 2015 is the best among G20 members under the background of global downward economic pressure.

In terms of accomplishments of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15), the goals of creating jobs in urban areas, economic restructuring, technological innovation, improving social welfare and protecting resources as well as environment have been reached. Some of them were even over-fulfilled or achieved ahead of schedule. It has boosted the nation's economic strength and enhanced people's living standards.

Besides, our aim of macroeconomic control in the 13th Five-Year Plan has also made a more comprehensive and more accurate judgment over China's economic development.

We must also understand the economic cycle, especially the changes in different stages of China's economy. In the international arena, bad-mouthing the Chinese economy and the trumpeting of a supposed "China collapse" has never ceased. As a matter of fact, China has only entered a new stage - the new normal of economic development. Throughout global economic history, all sustainable economies went through a transformation from catching-up style to endogenous economic growth which is driven by innovation.

We should acknowledge the potential driving force within the adjustment of economic structure from a realistic perspective. Such an engine for growth is brought by development of consumption and supply-side reform.

Macro statistics are always lagging behind the changes in the real world. That's why we have not yet seen the optimistic side of the Chinese economic data. Yet in days to come, China will enter a golden area of residential consumption. According to the latest figures from Ministry of Commerce, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.7 percent to 30 trillion yuan ($4.55 trillion) in 2015. Consumption will eventually become the biggest engine of growth in the country.

It is important to recognize the economic stabilizing mechanism brought by China's unique economic system. For instance, when it comes to the goals for the 13th Five-Year Plan, the country has different mechanisms for different regions. It encourages some provinces to compete for the best, while asking certain regions to simply guarantee they will exceed the planned figures. The method has played a vital role in ensuring stable economic growth.

Another major shortcoming of macro statistics is that they cannot predict the future trend of economic development. But the 13th Five-Year Plan is our biggest card against all the uncertainties both at home and abroad. The plan articulated that innovation will be China's biggest driving force for development. In addition, we also have five other engines for growth, namely new-type industrialization, informatization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and greenization.

We admit that uncertainties exist, but we should treat them objectively, because China has and will pass more drafts with assured details like the 13th Five-Year Plan to reduce those uncertainties. With the rebalance of China's domestic economy, the country will remain its status as the driving force of the world.

Hu Angang is the director of the Center for China Studies, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University. Zhang Xin is a postdoctoral at Tsinghua University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion



Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus