Seldom are leaders tested when they have not even assumed power. Philippine President-elect Rodrigo Duterte will be sworn into office on June 30, but the international community is already watching him with both attention and expectation. This is not surprising: Regional and even global politics might be affected by what he decides on the South China Sea issue.

To recap, in January 2013, the Philippines, under outgoing President Benigno Aquino III, unilaterally initiated arbitration at the Hague-based international tribunal regarding its claims in the South China Sea, immediately plunging the friendly ties with China to a new nadir.

China has consistently and publicly maintained that it would neither accept nor participate in the arbitration, and that the tribunal has no jurisdiction over the issue.

Duterte needs to understand that this issue will not be resolved by the tribunal because it is essentially a political question. The president-elect must be extremely careful; otherwise he is bound to be caught up in the maelstrom of a global political game played by actors with assets and ambitions far larger than the Philippines'.

It is true that the ties between the Philippines and the US have grown over recent years. But the consequences of the growing chaos that the Philippines' referral to the tribunal has generated are complex and far-reaching.

Some of these implications were hinted at by Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai when he recently wrote that the real issue in the South China Sea is disputes over territorial and maritime jurisdiction. China is doing nothing more than maintaining its legitimate position. "But this has been grossly misperceived as a strategic move by China to challenge US dominance. The US' responses to the AIIB and the Belt and Road initiative are similar examples of misperceived intentions."

Does Duterte really want to jointly trigger a second Cold War?

Duterte needs to ask himself the litmus-test question. Assuming the tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines, will this help the Philippines in any way?

In fact, such a ruling will cause far more harm than benefit, even for the Philippines. The relationship it has traditionally enjoyed with China will reach a new nadir, investment flows from and trade with China will reduce significantly and regional stability will be undermined.

To be sure, nobody is asking Duterte to undermine the interests of his country. China has offered bilateral negotiations to the Philippines many times. The president-elect would be wise to learn from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has been exhibiting, till now at least, a delicate balance between the interests of the US and China, especially in the Indian Ocean.

Duterte faces the opportunity of a lifetime to rise to the occasion and assume the difficult but eventually rewarding task of leadership. And the time is running out. If he awaits the decision of the tribunal before he tries to mend the bilateral relationship, he will lose much of the goodwill and benefit that China now has for him and for his country.

The author is a visiting faculty member at Beijing Dublin International College at Beijing University of Technology. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion