Brexit’s positive impact on China-UK economic ties stands to improve trade with EU

By Huang Zhilong Source:Global Times Published: 2016/6/29 0:33:01

Now that Brexit is inevitable, in the short run, this move will significantly impact the global economy and international financial markets, put the Chinese currency under greater depreciation pressure and push Sino-British trade cooperation into an adjustment phase. Sino-European trade relations already suffered frequent disturbances and hit a new low after the European Parliament denied market economy status (MES) for China in May. The Chinese government is advised to initiate free trade talks with the UK after its government has announced its withdrawal from the EU so that China can stay a step ahead in the strategic adjustment of Sino-European ties.

The EU has become China's largest trading partner, a significant destination for China's outbound direct investment and an important source of foreign direct investment for China. But the EU's inefficient decision-making mechanisms, which require consensus on important issues to be negotiated by all member countries, has created a rift in EU attitudes toward China.

The economic structures of developed EU members such as Britain, Germany, France and the Netherlands are complementary to China's, so these countries have enthusiastically pushed for further development of Sino-European ties. For example, during preparations for the China-proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the British government was the first G7 country to decide to join the bank and was later followed by countries like Germany and France. Meanwhile, these countries were among the strong supporters of granting China MES during EU discussions. But other EU member countries, mostly Central and Eastern European ones, share economic structures that are similar to China's. With competition from China exerting pressure on the EU market, these countries composed the major force that rejected granting MES to China.

Under such circumstances, even though many voices in China are calling for Sino-European free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, there have been neither formal nor informal responses from the EU. China-EU trade relations face deepening difficulties under the EU's current decision-making mechanisms and institutional framework.

As a former imperial power, the UK is still a center of world political and economic order, despite a decline in national strength after World War I and World War II. Britain is among the five permanent members of the UN, and the British pound remained in the special drawing rights (SDR) basket after the yuan's inclusion. This is because London is the only international financial center that can compete with New York's international financial status. The UK's influence on world opinion, education, technology and financial innovation is second only to that of the US. All these achievements are not merely the result of the UK's language advantage or its natural partnership with the US, but because the British government has long adopted pragmatism as its national strategy. For instance, Britain's cooperation with the US after World War II gave it significant say in the making of international rules and agencies such as the IMF, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the WTO. Britain was also able to actively participate in the process of European integration during rapid economic development in Germany and France after World War II, bridging the Atlantic coasts while enjoying the dividends brought by European integration.

Following the rise of the Chinese economy, Britain should establish full cooperation with China in trade and finance. China shares the UK's national strategy of pragmatism, and the UK has firmly supported China on issues such as yuan's inclusion in the SDR currency basket, the Belt and Road initiative, the establishment of the AIIB, China's market economy status and negotiations on the China-EU investment agreement.

China has reciprocated, fully backing the UK's move to develop London as the offshore yuan market, which will help to advance London's status as a global financial center. Having benefited from comprehensive Sino-British cooperation in new energy, technology, education, tourism and high-end manufacturing, the UK has recorded several consecutive years of positive economic growth while many other developed economies haven't.

Britain's withdrawal from the EU will have a deep impact on the global economy, but in the long run, it can be viewed as a breakthrough for the fostering of China's trade relations with European countries. China could take advantage of the adjustment in the EU's political and economic landscape to pragmatically start free trade talks that satisfy both countries' current economic structures, making Sino-British relations an example of China's "new form of great-power relationship" with developed countries.

The author is the director of the Macroeconomic Center at the Suning lnstitute of Finance. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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