Public opinion sways Oz-US alliance

By Su Hao Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/5 1:13:01

Australians' support for the country's long-standing military alliance with the US has dropped 9 percentage points to its lowest level in nine years, according to the Lowy Institute's annual poll in mid-June. Now only 71 percent of the country's population thinks the alliance is "very" or "fairly" important, compared to 80 percent last year. The poll also suggests that Australians are evenly divided on whether the nation's most significant foreign relationship is with the US or China.

The change in Canberra's public opinion is not surprising. The Australia-US alliance was initially designed to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which was re-defined as a system to tackle global uncertainties after the fall of the Soviet Union. As the US and traditional European countries are geographically too far to rely on, Australia has been attempting to build close ties with Asian countries for support since the 1990s, which have seen rapid development these years.

Canberra's ties with Beijing are particularly intimate. As significant trade partners and export destinations, the two nations are highly economically interdependent. China's rise spurs Canberra to have deeper economic cooperation with Beijing at a higher level. With no conflicting interests, China and Australia have been enjoying a mutually beneficial relationship for long.

However, the White House, on the other hand, is quite concerned and anxious about China's rise. To safeguard its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region, Washington attempts to take advantage of the US-Australia military alliance to contain China. This is in conflict with Canberra's China-friendly policy. Some Australian scholars argue that the US and China should involve themselves in healthy interaction, rather than vicious competitions.

Australia is stuck in a dilemma where it relies on China for economy and the US for security. As a result, Australians' attitudes to the nation's foreign relationship with China and the US were not very clear at the very beginning. However, as time goes by, Australian scholars have gradually recognized the White House's real intention - using Australia as a pawn to counter China and maintain hegemony in the region.

This is not in accordance with Canberra's national interests, and thus an increasing number of Australians are less enthusiastic than before about the alliance with the US.

The prospect of US Republican presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump is a concern for Australians, according to the poll. In the event of Trump's victory, nearly five in 10 Australians would "seek to move away from Washington" and around six in 10 would be "less likely to support Australia taking part in military actions in concert with Washington."

The "Trumpism" has invoked a long-standing philosophy of the Western world - self-interest always prevails.

Trump is accused of bringing a new form of populism to US politics, which Canberra is obviously quite worried about.

Although a Western country, Australia is geographically far away from other Western counterparts. It may be marginalized if the White House prioritizes its own interests too much over that of Canberra's.

Situated in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia cannot completely rely on other Western allies to protect its national interests, let alone if the "populist" Trump is elected as the US president.

At present, the slight change in Australia's public opinion may not exert substantial effects on the Washington-Canberra military alliance.

However, if the White House insists on its attempts to counter and contain China, the US-Australia alliance will be less popular. In the long run, the public opinion will affect the stability of the alliance.

Australia may have some misunderstandings about China over certain issues such as human rights conditions. However, strengthened economic relations and frequent cultural exchanges will help Canberra more accept Beijing and understand the uniqueness and complexities of China.

The author is director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center at China Foreign Affairs University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn. Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion



Posted in: Asian Review

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