The Chinese navy stages an exercise near the Xisha Islands on July 8, 2016 Photo: CFP

Editor's Note:

The final award by the Hague Arbitral Tribunal has come down hard against China on several fronts, including casting doubt on the basis of the "nine-dash line" and deciding against China's actions in disputed waters. Beijing has said it will not accept the verdict or the tribunal's legitimacy. The Global Times asked several Chinese experts for their opinions on the results of the award.

Xu Liping, a senior fellow of the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The award is within our expectations. The tribunal is selective in presenting evidence, and has not taken the overall situation into consideration. Without enough evidence to prove the negative effects our construction work may exert on the maritime environment, the court is not fair or authoritative at all.

Apart from China, both the Philippines and Vietnam have built islands before, and the court should not adopt double standards. It is groundless to conclude that "there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'." The UNCLOS, which has vague definitions on the above issues, should not be referred to as the only document in drawing conclusions on the historic rights. Customary laws and other legal documents should be taken consideration.

Apparently, it is an award regarding maritime rights. However, maritime rights are closely linked to sovereignty. The court has no right to rule over island sovereignty, but its award on maritime rights has left the impression that sovereignty over the islands has been decided.

Wang Hanling, director of the National Center for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This is without question the worst possible award. But we have expected it. The goal of the arbitration tribunal is forcefully dragging Beijing into the case, and trying to bind China to accept the award. According to this logic, the tribunal's decision that none of the reefs claimed by China are capable of generating entitlement to an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) has given claimant countries like the Philippines reasons and excuses to claim they have a 200-nautical-mile EEZs.

However, the tribunal's award was made without sufficient support. According to Article 121(3) of the UNCLOS, if a feature cannot sustain human habitation or economic life in its natural form, it is a reef and does not generate entitlement to an EEZ. But the UNCLOS has not specified the exact condition of "incapable of sustaining human habitation or economic life." There were no examples before. Hence, the tribunal made an exception this time by making a subjective, opinionated judgment. Such an award has greatly damaged the impartiality of international law.

Liu Feng, a visiting professor on South China Sea studies at Xiamen University

China will stick to its constant position of neither participating in nor accepting the Philippines-filed South China Sea arbitration case. If Manila further provokes Beijing, China can take this chance to strike back and even resolve the Ren'ai Reef issue once and for all.

The Ren'ai Reef issue was single handedly created by the Philippines. On May 9, 1999, the second day after NATO bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Manila took advantage of the event by illegally running an old warship aground on the Ren'ai Reef due to "technical difficulties." Although the Philippine government has made several promises to tow away the ship during negotiations with China, it never kept its words.

In time, the Philippines' attitude greatly changed by publicly denying its commitment and claiming the ship's existence on the reef is legal. On March 14, 2014, the Philippine foreign ministry claimed that the purpose of grounding the warship was to occupy the Ren'ai Reef. Does Manila still deserve faith from the international community after it failed to honor its promises over and over again?

The Chinese people will not keep exercising patience and tolerance without any conditions. If we want to end the long-term trouble, this might be an opportunity for China to solve the puzzle for good.

Zhao Xiaozhuo, a research fellow at the Center on China-US Defense Relations of the PLA Academy of Military Science

Given the unprecedented scale of US military deployments and China's recent military exercises in the South China Sea, a potential outbreak of war in the area is widely speculated on across the globe.

But those are only speculations which will hardly come true. The reason is simple, a war will not benefit anyone. China is trying to maintain a peaceful neighboring environment, while the US has not yet fully recovered from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is now even avoiding being involved in Syria, let alone confronting Beijing. Moreover, China is a major nuclear power. Beijing and Washington are highly dependent on each other economically, and the US needs China's collaboration on a number of issues worldwide.

But this does not mean that clashes between China and Washington are unlikely. After the award of the South China Sea arbitration is announced, the US might respond in three different ways - defensive deployment; more frequent navigation into waters of the islands claimed by China; uniting Japan, Australia and France to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea under the name of safeguarding international law and guaranteeing the arbitration award.

China will not stir up trouble, but it won't be afraid of trouble either. On whether gunfire will be heard in the South China Sea after Tuesday, the ball is in the US court.

Ruan Zongze, vice president of the China Institute of International Studies

China will not be isolated in Asia. On the contrary, an increasing number of countries will support Beijing's stance over the South China Sea issue. In accordance with international documents, China resumed its exercise of sovereignty over the South China Sea islands after WWII. Similarly, international law gives China the rights of not accepting, participating in the arbitration case and not recognizing or honoring the award. Those who claim that Beijing is not playing by the rules are the ones showing no respect to international law and global rules.

So far, over 60 nations have understood and backed China's stance over the case. China insists to settle disputes with relevant countries through bilateral agreements, regional consensus, international law and negotiations, while opposing any intervention from outsiders.

Many countries in ASEAN, including Brunei, Cambodia and Laos, have publicly showed their support to China and reached quite a few agreements with Beijing such as respecting every state's right to choose the means of dispute settlement.

The arbitration will divide ASEAN. Six among 10 ASEAN nations are not claimant countries in the waters. The Philippines is trying to transform its own divergences with China into a dispute between Beijing and the whole of ASEAN. Other ASEAN members are obviously not willing to pull Manila's chestnuts out of the fire. The Philippines has forcefully brought the controversial South China Sea issue into ASEAN. This is an extremely irresponsible action, which will lead to division of ASEAN, and severely damage regional peace and stability.

Wei Jianguo, vice president of China Center for International Economic Exchanges

The South China Sea arbitration award is a real test for China's surrounding countries. Whether they will pick the right side is key for their future development.

At the moment, ASEAN nations have three different attitudes toward China - hoping to sit between two stools, depending on the US politically while counting on cooperation with Beijing economically; taking China's side, believing that only China can help them realize long-term development; and a few nations like the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, hoping to contain China in the South China Sea by using the leverage of the US.

ASEAN has now come to a crossroad. Many of its members are well aware that they cannot take the wrong side. No leader from any nation would refuse opportunities to boost their country's economic development or raise their people's living standard. Only countries that can bring benefits to them can be their real friends.

The Beijing-led "One Belt, One Road" initiative is the only way for those countries to win China's help and support. The award of the South China Sea arbitration will not influence their will and the timetable to cooperate with China. Beijing will accelerate the initiative next by speeding up the constructions of local industrial parks and economic and trade cooperation zones in ASEAN nations, in order to encourage more private firms from ASEAN members to join the program and eliminate the ill effects of the arbitration.