Coup truth uncertain, but turmoil likely

By Zhu Quangang Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/18 18:23:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT



Factions in the Turkish military attempted coup in Turkey on Friday night, the country's fifth since 1960, reflecting Ankara's diplomatic and domestic difficulties and striking a blow to the nation's political development.

The army was closely connected to the establishment and expansion of the Ottoman Empire, predecessor of the Republic of Turkey. The army has also played a vital role in the republic's establishment. Turkey's founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was the country's most successful general in WWI. The Turkish military launched four coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997, consolidating its governance over the country.

Finding a power balance between the military and the government has been hard for Turkey. While the government needs the army for protection, the latter often poses threats to the former. The failed coup last week is another attempt by the military to intervene in politics.

However, the latest coup attempt is not a mere repetition of the previous ones. At present, Turkey is seeing severe divergences among different political factions.

Economically, the nation is troubled by a slowing economy, high inflation, climbing unemployment, and increased fiscal deficits. With frequent terror attacks by the Islamic State and Kurdish forces, Turkey's security situation is deteriorating as well.

Amid domestic and foreign difficulties, some military officials attempted to restore the constitutional order, democracy and the rule of law through the coups. This is similar to previous coups. But the plotters failed where their predecessors succeeded.

The coup lacked support from within the army. To begin with, the main forces launching the coup appear to be a number of middle- and lower-ranked officers. The denunciations from high-level officials meant the coup did not guarantee enough support from the military. In fact, in the 21st century, higher-level Turkish military officials have no intention of forcefully intervening in politics.

The coup was also condemned by Turkish opposition parties, which accept democratic institutions instead of military coups. The Republican People's Party, Nationalist Movement Party and People's Democratic Party all clarified that they support democracy and people's will, and oppose military coups, which would bring more difficulties to the nation.

In addition, citizens showed little support to the coup. Polls show that the public's trust in the army dropped from 86.2 percent in 2008 to 69 percent by 2010, after the revelations about the Turkish "deep state" and prior military atrocities. After the coup started, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mobilized a large number of citizens to take to the streets, proving that the coup lacked public support.

Turkey's democratic process has influenced people's attitude to the military coup, which was doomed to fail due to a lack of support from high-level military officials, other political forces and citizens.

Opinions are divided on who manipulated the coup. Some conjecture that the coup was directed by Erdogan to strike a blow against the Gulen movement, a wide-spanning group led by businessman and Islamic teacher Fethullah Gulen, who currently lives in Pennsylvania, and grab more political power. The Gulenists were allies of Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) until 2012, but since the two movements split Erdogan has blamed Gulen for everything that goes wrong in Turkey. However, the coup was too severe and intense to be a presidential conspiracy.

Erdogan lost no time in blaming Gulen for the coup. According to the Turkish police, the ruling AKP planned to arrest Gulen followers Saturday, but the latter launched a preemptive coup Friday after being informed of the arrest. Gulenists, in contrast, point to the movement's peaceful rhetoric and mild ideology.

Some scholars believe that the coup falls within the tradition of the Turkish military's "Kemalist" interventions in politics. The Turkish army has always seen itself as a guardian of Ataturk's legacy, especially against Islamic parties like the AKP.

The truth behind the coup is still unclear, but the ruling party has already consolidated its governance. A total of 2,745 judges suspected of connections with Gulen were dismissed. The government has also strengthened its control over the army by arresting 2,839 soldiers, including high-ranking generals. Erdogan's strong image was also cultivated, creating a favorable condition for constitutional amendments solidifying presidential power.

This is highly likely to intensify political competition and could result in a new round of political turmoil in Turkey.

The author is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of World History, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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