Will disappointed Bernie supporters vote for Hillary?

By Qiu Zhibo Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/19 23:42:54

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT


Last week, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders finally announced his official endorsement to Hillary Clinton. To win Sanders' support, Clinton promised to integrate 80 percent of Sanders' policy positions into her campaign platform after several rounds of negotiations.

Clinton's campaign team assumes that Sanders' endorsement will unify the Democratic Party against Republican candidate Donald Trump and Sanders supporters would quickly coalesce around Clinton. However, it might be more challenging for Clinton to actually secure the votes of Sanders' 13 million supporters.

First, Sanders attracted a large amount of new constituencies outside traditional Democratic Party voter base, primarily millennials and independent voters. For many of Sanders supporters, it is the first time for them to participate in political campaigns and vote for general elections.

Sanders for decades described himself as a Democratic socialist (his policy position is close to Scandinavian welfare states) and only registered as Democrat for this election. These new voters vow their loyalties to Sanders and his "political revolution" more than the Democratic Party. Many new voters registered as Democrat only to vote for Sanders. Therefore, even after Sanders dropped out of the race, it does not imply that his supporters will automatically "loyally" vote for the Democrat candidate.

Second, in each of his primary speech, Sanders launched a thorough "political revolution" against "corrupted" Washington-based political elites. Sanders attacked the Democrat establishment on fundamental issues such as criticizing superdelegate system which favors establishment in primaries, reforming campaign finance and ending Super PACs. Sanders even pledged to replace Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Schultz, as she conducted a "rigged" primary election set to favor Clinton. Sanders also repeatedly challenged Clinton's personal honesty and trustworthiness and her "close connections" with the Wall Street.

All those remarks have been imprinted in the hearts of Sanders' young supporters. For them, Clinton is the "evil" representative of the corrupted political system. Many of them became very disappointed and outraged when Sanders changed his tone and endorsed Clinton. At New Hampshire rally, Sanders supporters held "Never Clinton" banners. On social media, angry supporters commented "Bernie or Bust" and refused to vote for Clinton. 

Third, the Democratic Party might underestimate the losses of young voters after Sanders' endorsement, as the current poll indicates 80 percent of Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton. The sample sizes of current US election polls are relatively very small, ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 voters. Polling results might not be reliable due to the errors of sampling methodology and subjective preference of pollsters.

Given Clinton team's overconfidence with Sanders supporters, it is likely that Sanders will be gradually marginalized in the general election campaigns. It will probably alienate more young voters who already disbelieve in Clinton's "political promises."

As a matter of fact, the Democrats might lose more primary voters than the Republicans in general election. A significant amount of Sanders' young voters will be diverted to the independent candidates Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party Jill Stein. According to a recent CNN/ORC poll, Johnson surged by 4 percent while Clinton's support rate remains unchanged after Sanders' endorsement. The growing support for third party candidates mostly are from young voters. Besides, some will vote for Trump to show their angers against the Democrat political elites; some will not show up or write Sanders' name on the vote anyway.

There are still more than three months until the general election. Whether Clinton will keep her promise and speak out for Sanders' policy positions in her presidential campaign remains a question. Some skeptical Sanders supporters will wait for Clinton's action to decide whom they will vote for. Trump also reached out to attract disappointed and angry Sanders supporters, despite his far-right and racist platform being the opposite of Sanders' politics. On social media, Trump criticized Sanders for selling himself out to the "crooked" political institutions.

As Sanders quit, the competition between Clinton and Trump might resemble Britain's remain and leave campaign. In the end, voters are facing a simple either-or choice - either maintain or change the status quo. If the disappointment and anger of Sanders' young supporters continue to the general election, they will most likely to vote for change.

In the long run, Sanders and his "political revolution" has inspired a generation of American youth to stand up and fight against the corrupt political system. As Sanders repeatedly argued, the enormous wealth brought by globalization has been concentrated on the hands of political elites and "Corporate America" including the Wall Street, corporate media and tax-haven companies.

The appeal of his "political revolution" among young voters reveals the deep frustrations and dissatisfactions on widening income inequality, intensifying confrontation between the political elites and the general public, growing fears of terrorism and anti-war sentiments, as well as inefficient income redistribution from the rich to the poor.

Sanders is unlikely to run another presidential campaign, but his political movement grows over time. Before his endorsement, Sanders encouraged young people to launch political campaigns and pursue political careers, in the hope of changing the political system in the future.

As Sanders' young supporters take leading roles in society, some of them will carry on the "political revolution" and continue pressuring political elites to answer to the voices of the people, instead of "Corporate America."

The author is a consultant at the United Nations Headquarter in New York. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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