Chaos could seal Washington-Moscow deal

By Cui Heng Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/22 0:13:16

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

US Secretary of State John Kerry paid a visit to Russia earlier this month and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The purpose of the visit was to push forward the "Minsk II" plans in Ukraine and to strike a cease-fire deal over Syria.

There were many expectations around Kerry's Moscow visit as one week prior to his trip, he visited Georgia and Ukraine, two of the post-Soviet countries with the deepest anti-Russia sentiments. He also accompanied US President Barack Obama in early July to the NATO Warsaw Summit which is believed to have an anti-Russia connotation. But before Kerry arrived in Moscow, terrorist attacks took place in Nice, France, followed by coup attempt in Turkey. The changing international situation provided new agendas for Kerry's visit, and the current US-Russia relationship may need to be adjusted.

During the visit, Washington and Moscow reached some consensus. The two agreed to carry out joint actions in Syria to strike Al Qaeda and other extreme groups. For Russia, getting a US promise to assist in Moscow's strikes against the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group, which had been refused by the US many times, is a breakthrough.

As the Syrian issue is coming to a phase of reconciliation and negotiations, Russia and the US have their own considerations of what role they are going to play in the aftermath. The US aims to establish a military partnership with Russia so as to urge Russia to put pressure on the Bashar al-Assad regime and provide assistance to besieged rebellious armed forces.

Even if Russia cannot help keep al-Assad in charge, it hopes that those who will come to power are not anti-government forces. Although the US has given up its objective of overthrowing the al-Assad regime, the costs of maintaining the regime have far outweighed the gains for Russia. Therefore, Russia feels it necessary to strike a compromise with the US.

Meanwhile, the US and Russia may have also reached an agreement on anti-terrorism cooperation. Kerry brought an eight-page document with him when visiting Russia. It shows the US offering intelligence and targeting sharing, and even joint bombing operations. Kerry might not think that anti-terrorism actions are critical for both countries, as the terrorist attacks in Nice and coup attempt in Turkey right after his visit have brought uncertainties to the region.

The terrorists in the Nice attacks tactically chose the tools and the timing. The attacks reflect that the terror threat in Europe has been expanding. The infliction of IS has not only hit the Middle East, but will also spread to neighboring regions and countries. As Western countries and Russia have their own interests in cracking down on IS, IS has become more active under the joint crackdown. Russia is particularly concerned about the spillover effect of IS because around 3,000-8,000 Russian Caucasians have joined IS.

The chaotic situation in Turkey is a time bomb for the Middle Eastern order. After clearing up the Turkish army, which is a barrier to secularization in the country, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can only depend more on loyal Muslims. It is hard to say whether the secularization process in Turkey will retreat. With the already turbulent Middle East and still active IS, another Islamist country would be more than a headache for the US and Russia.

The bilateral relationship between the two countries has not come out of the low ebb caused by the Ukrainian crisis. This does not hinder bilateral cooperation in areas that concern the interests of both. But their cooperation can only stay at the international level. Jeremy Shapiro, a fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, has noted that the US and Russia can hardly work on regional issues as the Crimea crisis has made Russia's peripheral issues oversensitive.

The author is a PhD candidate at the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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