Nepal is one of the most strategically important nations in South Asia. Recently, the political dynamics of the country changed, creating a power void. After drafting the new constitution, a constituent assembly was formed under the leadership of KP Sharma Oli, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), the second largest party in the Assembly. And a smaller party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) (MC) broke from the coalition and retracted their support from the government, forcing the formation of a new administration.

In the wake of this new development, the Nepali Congress (NC) along with other Madhesi parties has made a commitment to support Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda, the leader of the MC. After Oli, another communist party has an opportunity to lead the government and be the prime minister.

According to the pact between the MC and the NC, the leadership of the nation will alternate between the two parties every nine months. As such, if things go as per the pact, Prachanda doesn't have much time and in this short initial tenure he has to overcome significant hurdles. In between all this, he has to establish good relations with China while also sealing up the cracks and crevices with India simultaneously, which has been running an unofficial economic blockade.

It is yet to be seen how Prachanda will handle international relations. The new government, which is allegedly being formed with the assistance of India, creates a huge hurdle to Nepal-China relations.

Oli has already done his job effectively to ensure that relations stay strong. Since Oli was closer to China than Prachanda, the latter faces several challenges, especially given the perceptions of India's role in the latest deal.

Refusing to succumb to India's demands during the blockade, Oli has created a patriotic persona. Despite being close to India in the past, Oli's strong reluctance to yield to India's demands this time won him the support of a majority of Nepalese.

But Prachanda, on the other hand, influenced by the political ideology and diplomacy of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong, has traditionally leant toward Beijing despite being in conversations with the Indian counterparts.

Will all the agreements and terms made with China under the leadership of Oli be realized? Or will they suffer the same fate as previous ones of being dropped sharply down the agenda and live only on paper? How will the relations of Nepal with China, which seemed to be moving along a path of mutual cooperation during Oli's tenure, move forward in the upcoming days?

Prachanda has been the flag-bearer of revolutionary agendas in Nepal like republicanism, federalism, and secularism. He has also been vocal in the past about his inclination toward China and disagreement with India in many aspects. The ruling party of India, the Bharatiya Janta Party, which is alleged to have played behind-the-curtains part in the current political shake-up, is believed to be against these revolutionary changes in Nepal.

Thus, some ambiguity and confusion prevails as to why India is helping Prachanda become the next prime minister. The best guess at this point is that it is not Prachanda who India wants as prime minister; rather, it is Oli who India doesn't want as prime minister, apparently due to his aggressive and overt pro-China, anti-India sentiments - at least as perceived in New Delhi.

 Moreover, there is the agreement that Prachanda will share rotating power with Sher Bahadur Deuba, leader of the NC, India's most favored candidate as prime minister. As a result, many believe that Prachanda is only being used as a stick to discharge Oli. All these developments obviously concern China and may lead them to believe that this government is being formed under New Delhi's design.

With a deep concern and watchful eyes of both the neighboring countries, how the impending new government takes both relations forward will decide the success or downfall of the new government.

The author is executive editor at muldharnews.com. roshanbdrkhadka@gmail.com