Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Throughout the entire process of the South China Sea arbitration, the US has been beating the drum for the Philippines avidly. In spite of being an obstinate non-signatory of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US keeps stressing the significance of the law in maintaining the international order. Although pledging to stay neutral in the South China Sea disputes, it publicly demanded China elaborate on the nine-dash line, a U-shaped demarcation line used for China's claims for the islands and isles in the South China Sea.

However, the US government has surprisingly deviated from its previous efforts to put pressure on China after the announcement of the verdict. Not only has it made a carefully-worded statement about the award, but US Secretary of State John Kerry, in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi last week, has promised to communicate with China, properly manage and control divergences with cooperation and pass on a sound US-China relationship to the next US administration. On a recent visit to the Philippines, Kerry reiterated that the US doesn't take a position on the South China Sea disputes, and called for a dialogue between China and the Philippines.

Is it true that the US has given up its inflammatory position on the South China Sea disputes and decided to cool down the tensions in the region?

Before we find out Washington's real intent, we have to sort out the full content of Kerry's statement in the Philippines. It is true that he highlighted the role of bilateral negotiation in addressing the disputes, but he stuck to the binding force of the award, saying "the parties should comply with their obligations under law." According to the logic of the US, dialogues do not negate the verdict of the arbitration. Since the arbitral tribunal does not have an enforcement mechanism, decisions can only be carried out with the consent of both parties. The US actually takes negotiation as an approach to enforce the award, and this is entirely different from what China asks for from a negotiation.

By appealing for peace and dialogue, the US has passed the buck to the Philippines. Washington is suspicious about the loyalty of the new Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, since he took a reconciliatory posture toward China before and after he took office. But with the verdict that went so heavily against China, all the US has to do is to wait and see: China will not agree to a negotiation on the basis of the verdict, and the Philippine public will not absolve Duterte if talks with China go beyond the architecture of the verdict. This critical divergence might ruin the chance for China and the Philippines to improve their relationship. At that time, the Philippines will have to go back to the arms of the US.

Kerry also urged "all the claimants to exercise restraint," which is actually a warning to China alone. The verdict, although lacking binding force, denied almost all China's legitimate rights to the islands and isles in the South China Sea, so the US hopes China won't strike back to jeopardize the award, which is a fruit of victory for the US and the Philippines.

The deepest US worry is China might engage in the reclamation of Huangyan Island or establish an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea. A reclaimed Huangyan Island, given the island's proximity to the Philippines, might pose direct threat to US military presence in the Philippines, and an ADIZ will greatly weaken US military leverage in the South China Sea. The result of the arbitration has indeed given China a reason to conduct these moves, but as countermeasures instead of provocations. Thus, the US calls for peace and composure to ensure China won't be forced to take these measures.

In order to reassure Duterte, Kerry gave a big compliment to the US-Philippine traditional friendship. He praised the Philippines' democracy but avoided mentioning the rampant lack of rule of law in the country. Although human rights is always the agenda of high-ranking US diplomats, Kerry apparently let up on Duterte in this regard for something more important. As a reward, the Philippine president and foreign secretary reaffirmed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, and the five military bases that are open to the US military will keep their doors open.

The US is skillful at the art of diplomacy and knows clearly how to secure its interests. Although the arbitration is between China and the Philippines, the US is actually the biggest winner. China doesn't lose anything solid from the arbitration, and the Philippines doesn't get real benefits. But the seed of tensions has been planted in the South China Sea, and the prospects of the Sino-Philippine relationship are still uncertain. Although the US has reaped some profits from the region, it has cast a shadow on regional peace and stability.

The author is a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn