Russians figure Trump can’t be worse for Moscow than Clinton

By Cui Heng Source:Global Times Published: 2016/8/3 22:09:13

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's e-mail scandal is undoubtedly the most wonderful episode in the ongoing US presidential election. Recent days have seen further vehemence surrounding who was behind the e-mail leak.

Media outlets and intelligence experts have claimed that the DNC's server was hacked by Russian operatives, a claim now being investigated by US law enforcement, and Clinton's team has also denounced Donald Trump for colluding with Russia to attack her and even claimed he committed treason by calling for Russia to seek her supposedly "missing e-mails."

Clinton and Trump hold entirely different positions toward how to deal with Russia in the future.

Trump has all along been pro-Russian. He declared that he would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory if he is elected president. And he pointed out, "The people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were." In one of his campaign speeches, he talked about the alliance between Washington and Moscow, which, given his locution, might mean no more than a way of expression.

However, apparently Trump deems it necessary to change the current US-Russian ties. A street mural depicting Trump locking lips with Putin in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius that went viral online is enough to showcase the international community's recognition of Trump's relationship with the Kremlin.

In the US, Trump's supporters can be divided into two groups: blue-collar workers abandoned in the country's economic transformation and opponents of immigration, who have been most severely affected by the global financial crisis.

Against the background of the economic recession, there has been a surge of xenophobia and trade protectionism among middle- and lower-class voters who are placed in a disadvantaged position in US society. They are more sensitive to employment and income pressures and most of them attribute unemployment and reduced salaries to globalization. Trump is a representative of their interests and values and his objection to globalization and free trade echoes their sentiments. He gives greater priority to US domestic affairs than to external issues.

When his interests and values collide, as a businessman, Trump will inevitably choose interests, which also applies to his diplomatic propositions. His prudence and emphasis on return might  help clear up the shambles left by then Bush administration's interventionism.

As the Crimean crisis constitutes the direct cause of the quasi-cold war relations between Washington and Moscow, if the US acknowledges Russia's maneuvers in Crimea, it will deal a heavy blow to the Eastern European nations and former Soviet republics that have closely followed the steps of the US since the end of the Cold War.

At present, Russian authorities and public opinion are in favor of Trump instead of Clinton, whom they have dealt with before. Maxim A. Suchkov, an expert of the Russian International Affairs Council and columnist for Al-Monitor's Russia Pulse, said that no one in Russia pins hope on Clinton, who maintains a hawkish position on Ukrainian affairs, declines to cooperate with Russia on the Syrian crisis, doubts Putin's Eurasian strategy and demands the US increase its military presence in Europe to contain Moscow's inflating ambition to build a new empire.

Statistics from the Russian Public Opinion Research Center show that one-third of Russians expect to see an improvement in Russia-US ties with Trump to be elected president and more than half contend that the two countries will suffer further worsening relations if Clinton wins. 

The expectation of Russian authorities and society for Trump not really lies in his potential to improve US-Russia ties. It is because Russia is now under too much external pressure and Trump's winning the US presidential election will deliver results no worse than Clinton - for Russia.

The author is a PhD candidate at the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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