A booth of AI technology at the 6th China Electronic Information Expo held in Shenzhen, South China's Guangdong Province. Photo: VCG

 

In the Terminator franchise, robots have super-human strength and intelligence and can think and live like human beings. In the Bond film Die Another Day, an autonomous Aston Martin car can shoot rockets and even vanish.

Some of these scenarios could come true in 2020, only in a less frightening and more real way, Chinese scientists have predicted.


The predictions were based on a report published by Alibaba’s DAMO Academy.

The report concluded that 10 technology trends are likely to see breakthroughs in 2020, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), which can draw knowledge from different fields such as cognitive psychology and human history. Large-scale cooperation between machines could also be possible, where intelligent equipment and systems work together to coordinate city traffic, moving cargo and packing in factories. 

Industry insiders also believe autonomous cars will see a boom in 2020. The Beijing News said that at least seven companies rolled out robotaxi services in the past year, and tech giant Baidu has started a trial run. 

Experts told the Global Times that China’s automatic driving technology still lags behind the US to some extent, but China’s massive data, policy support and other factors will help speed up the realization of the technology. 

5G will also be a key technological area in 2020. Wang Zhiqin, deputy director of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said during a conference on December 27 that China will build 5G base stations on a large scale in 2020, and 5G will be deployed all over the country. 

With the commercialization of 5G networks, which feature low latency and ultra-high speed, as well as the popularization of the Internet of Things (IoT), machine-to-machine communication and coordination will further release human labor in industrial production and consumption scenarios, said Zuo Shiquan, head of the equipment manufacturing research institute under the China Center for Information Industry Development.

Zuo told the Global Times Thursday that it is inevitable that robots will replace some people’s repeated work but this is also expected to create more “surprising” careers.

“More personalized services like psychological counseling will become the trend in the future with robots,” said Zuo.

2020 also marks a landmark year for space technology with many countries racing to explore outer space. Various countries, including China, the US and the UAE plan to send probes to Mars. The successful flight of Long March-5 has given impetus to China's ambitious space program, and the country plans to perform missions including the Chang'e-5 lunar probe and the country's first Mars probe mission.

However, rapid technology development has also triggered certain controversies over issues such as privacy. 

The government has begun to make polices to protect data security, said the DAMO Academy report, noting that most data-sharing platforms currently have the same weaknesses, such as complicated data sharing processes, high communication expenses and high risk of data leaks.

“China’s regulations and rulemaking in terms of data protection have caught up quickly over recent years to align with the industry’s development,” said Zuo, adding that the country’s pace is basically in line with other countries.


Race further

Chip design surrounded by system-on-a-chip (SoC) design platforms for AI and IoT scenarios and open-source RISC-V processors will promote the rapid development of an open-source ecology, the Damo Academy report said.

Modular design will also accelerate the pace of delivery for customized chipsets, it said.

“The trend of building up an open-source ecology and new methods of design will help China narrow the gap with the US,” an industry insider, who asked to remain anonymous, told the Global Times Thursday.

However, China still lags behind the US in terms of chipset manufacturing, he added.

Pingtouge, Alibaba’s semiconductor subsidiary, unveiled its first AI-dedicated chip, known as the Hanguang 800, in September, fleshing out the nation’s chipmaking reputation, which has largely revolved around the self-sufficiency push by an embattled Huawei in 2019.

Apart from the chipset sector, China is ramping up efforts to compete with the US in quantum computing, a fundamental technology with the most strategic significance in the 21st century – and one where the US hasn't established an advantage, industry analysts said.

More investment, intensifying competition and richer industrial ecology will be the key words for quantum computing in 2020, said the Damo Academy report, which pointed out that the year will embrace two milestones in terms of technology – fault-tolerant quantum computing and demonstration of quantum advantages.

“China needs collective efforts from the government and industry players to focus on the quantum computing sector, or the gap with the US could widen this year,” said Guo Guoping, a key research fellow in the development and research (R&D) team and professor at the Hefei-based University of Science and Technology of China.

Guo told the Global Times Thursday that since the sector is still in the early phase but has high strategic potential, it deserves a lot of investment.