The expert team ready for departure to Italy to help fight COVID-19 on Thursday. Photo: Yang Hui/GT

Italy faces a severe outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the coming days, as confirmed cases are predicted to reach 110,000 by March 31 - on a par with China's Hubei Province, results from a preprint article on medRxiv showed. 

Based on the data from the article, from March 6 to March 9, the effectiveness of Italy's prevention and control measures were equivalent to roughly 39 percent of China's mainland regions excluding Hubei Province. 

If the situation does not significantly improve by March 31, the cumulative caseloads in Italy are likely to hit 110,000 people. Estimates proceeded to show that 190,000 people might be infected by April 30, and 210,000 by May 31.

The results showed that South Korea has done a better job in implementing highly effective virus prevention and control measures. The country's control efficiency was close to China's mainland excluding Hubei. It is predicted that the cumulative number of new cases in South Korea will stay at 8,541 on April 30. While for various reasons, Iran's actual caseloads over the past four days fluctuated wildly, and the country is deemed too complex to fully fit the model, however the pandemic remains grave there. 

Utilizing the transcendental modeling based on data collected inside and outside of China's Hubei Province, the report mathematically forecasts the development of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran based on reports released from the three countries between March 6 and March 9.

Four of the five authors of the paper, including Zheng Zhong, Wu Ke, and Yao Zhixian, came from Shanghai General Hospital. The article has not yet been peer-reviewed and evaluated.

According to the report, the IFP of time, meaning when the rate of new increments reaches zero, is estimated to be March 6-12 in South Korea, March 10 -24 in Italy and March 10-24 in Iran.

The numbers of cumulative confirmed cases will reach approximately 20,000 in South Korea, 209,000 in Italy, and 226,000 in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively, the forecast showed, while noting that there should be room for improvement if the metrics continue to progress.

As Italy has clearly intensified prevention and control measures lately, the report said Italy's virus situation has the potential to improve.

Global Times