Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Editor's Note:

The US under the Donald Trump administration is launching an all-out crackdown against China, and is mobilizing a global anti-China alliance. Can the US succeed in its attempt to gang up on China? Will China's development be thwarted? The Global Times (GT) invited several foreign scholars to share their views on these topics.  

Oleg Ivanov, vice-rector of research, Moscow-based Diplomatic Academy

Some years ago there was much speculation about the possibility of the new international relations construct of a G2 between China and the US. Today these speculations are forlorn hopes. 

Former US president Barack Obama introduced a rebalancing strategy aimed at containing China's rise in the Pacific. The current US national security strategy of 2017 labeled China a "revisionist" state along with Russia, saying they are trying to break the rules-based world order worked out by the West. 

Besides, President Donald Trump's administration is trying to foster Obama's strategy by connecting the Pacific and Indian Ocean region into a new geopolitical construct: the Indo-Pacific region. They are now developing a new Indo-Pacific Strategy pursuing the same goal to contain China. In particular, a first and foremost goal of this strategy is to stop the promotion of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative in this part of world. 

Does the US strategy of containment of China stand a chance? I tend to believe that the strategy will not work: at least not to the extent the US desires. For decades, the previous US administrations had been working hard to involve China into the economic dependence system thus hoping to guide the Chinese leadership. It did not work that way. Chinese economic growth put the US economy in dependence on the Chinese one as well. 

The Chinese leaders have powerful tools to influence the US decision-making if the US pressure reaches a dangerous point. Among such tools there is an export of Chinese rare-earth materials to the US, with roughly 80 percent of such materials necessary to produce electronic goods both for civilian and military sectors coming to the US from China. The US economy is dependent on such supplies that make the US vulnerable in case China stops these supplies. 

President Trump's economic sanctions became an everyday tool to affect the policy of other countries. In the case of China with huge trade turnovers of $559 billion and elements of economic interdependence, containment through sanctions has turned out for the US to be a shot in the arm. 

The US attempts to bring its Pacific partners like ASEAN to the anti-China coalition to beef up the containment are unlikely to succeed as these partners are not willing to find themselves in the situation to choose between the US and China. 

Besides, China can rely on Russian support in the UN Security Council as both countries are experiencing the US containment policy. This fact also diminishes the effectiveness of the US strategy. Containment can create problems but it will not stop China's rise. 

Robert A. Manning, senior fellow of the Brent Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council and its Strategic Foresight Initiative

The US and China are in a tit-for-tat, action-reaction cycle of over-reaction where neither side will win, with no issue too small, from visas to news media, in what appears a race to the bottom. The logic seems to be, "I don't care if it hurts me, if it hurts you more." There is a rare bipartisan US consensus that China's assertive behavior and ambitions threaten core US interests.

The US often acts like it was still in 1956, and has yet to answer the key question: If China's assertiveness is unacceptable, explain what the US would see as China's legitimate interests? Similarly, China must deal with the reality that the US will remain a leading technology and Pacific power, so what US role, what norms and rules can China live with? China appears to be over-compensating for the wise restraint advocated by Deng Xiaoping and inventing interests and grievances that much of the world sees in another way. 

Both the US and China run the risk of isolating themselves, while the rest of the world devises coping strategies to adjust to US unilateralism as well as retreat on one hand and Chinese assertiveness on the other. Both sides need to take a deep breath, and deal with the reality that neither is going away, and however much the US and China view themselves as competitors, if we are to avoid catastrophe, they need to pursue a diplomacy of defining competitive coexistence. Next time, the world may not be as lucky as during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Humphrey P.B. Moshi, a professor of economics at Tanzania's leading state-run University of Dar es Salaam

I firmly believe that at this stage, the US cannot contain China's development. First, the US is almost reaching the plateau of its development trajectory, while China is not. Second, whereas in some areas (such as R&D) China lags behind the US, the former's speed of catch-up is extremely high. China in terms of digitalization and robotics is a leader. Third, Chinese people's heightened spirit of adoption and adaptation, coupled with their culture of hard work, discipline and savings will continue to drive the economy forward; no turning back. Certainly, under such circumstances it would not take long, less than a decade, before China becomes a world economic leader.

Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University

I do not think the US is containing China. The current US bipartisan support to a few policies toward China cannot be seen as containment but basically a disappointment with China's policies. Both should address each other's concerns and normalize relations for the sake of global stability. Both countries influence each other through various facets. The fundamental issue is to have a strategic dialogue and straighten out the problems.

Mwangi Wachira, a former senior economist from the World Bank

China's development depends on domestic and foreign, local and international factors. The domestic and local factors far outweigh the foreign and international factors. This is especially true since China has been pivoting away from exports to domestic consumption to drive development. China has also been diversifying supply chains with projects such as Belt and Road Initiative. This cushions China's economy from the actions of one trade partner such as the US, although that relationship is important. For these reasons, I do not think any other country can contain the development of China. Only China can do that.