A worker sanitizes the door of a shop at a market in Agartala, the capital city of India's northeastern state of Tripura, Oct. 18, 2020. (Str/Xinhua)

A government-appointed panel studying the mathematical progression of COVID-19 numbers in India has said the country has crossed the pandemic peak and will bring it under control by early next year if all health protocols are followed.

Local media reported Sunday that the panel also warned that the onset of winter and upcoming festivals may increase people's susceptibility to the coronavirus infection and laxity at this point can again lead to a case spike.

"Relaxation in safety measures can lead to a significant rise. It can be as much as up to 2.6 million cases within a month," the panel was quoted as saying.

According to it, only 30 percent of the Indian population has developed immunity so far, and health protection measures must continue to be carried out.

"If all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active cases by February end," the panel said.

The 10-member panel estimated that the national tally of infections at the time when the epidemic is over in the country would stand at 10.5 million. At present, the figure is over 7.5 million.