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The question I have been asked most these days is: Who will win the US presidential election, Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

The fact is serious researchers dare not make an absolute prediction. Their judgment is only supported by some polls, analysis, past experience, and the intuition of some knowledgeable people in this field.

In traditional polling across the US, Biden maintains a substantial lead over Trump, some 8 to 10 percentage points. But in the six key swing states, the gap between Trump and Biden continues to narrow. And in some internet polls, Trump's approval rating is higher than Biden's.

The American people's analysis has no reference value now. They can hardly be objective because they are all involved in the election. Most Chinese scholars I know believe Biden will win. The more expert they are in US elections, the more they believe Biden will win. Yet many other Chinese who have had a deep relationship with the US, such as businesspeople, believe Trump will win. Many of those who rely on their intuition think Trump will win.

Some people say that this is not a race between Biden and Trump, but a vote of confidence in Trump. This makes some sense. Biden has obvious weaknesses, but many people who vote for him don't actually support him, they are fed up with Trump. You may as well say, Trump is running against "everyone." 

The result of this election will determine whether the anti-establishment and anti-liberal path will be short-lived or continue to take root in American politics. Judging from early voting, voter turnout is likely to be very high because people on both sides believe that if the other side wins, the US is doomed.

Trump won the election four years ago, despite unfavorable polls. If he can do the same this time, it will show that traditional polling in the US is generally no longer credible and mainstream US media have basically lost their influence. Mainstream, liberal US media have almost collectively stood against Trump. If Trump wins, it is not only a loss for Biden, but will also be a Battle of Waterloo over the declining power of American media.

Which candidate's victory is better for China? Basically, they are equally bad to China. This is not an official tone. This is the truth. Just look at how vicious mainstream media such as the New York Times and CNN has been toward China, even though they are all hardcore supporters of the Democratic Party. Chinese people cannot distinguish them from Trump, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo at all. China cannot count on the US to find its better nature. The bottom line of US attitude toward China can only be shaped by ourselves.

The author is editor-in-chief of the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn