Motorists flying flags sporting portraits of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a car rally to show support for Putin’s presidential candidacy in Moscow on Saturday. Photo: AFP

Editor's Note:

The 2012 Russian presidential election is scheduled to take place Sunday, with current Russian Prime Minster Vladimir Putin very likely to return to the Kremlin in his old job as president. December and January saw both anti-Putin and pro-Putin demonstrations. Allegations of vote-fixing also emerged. Will Russians trust the results of the election? Why do Russians have mixed feelings about Putin? Global Times reporter Yu Jincui (Yu) talked to Feng Yujun (Feng), director of the Institute of Russian Studies in the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, on these issues.

GT: How do you see the possible results of Russia's presidential election Sunday?

GT: Putin's popularity ratings have risen recently after a previous dramatic fall, soaring from 37 percent in mid- December to over 50 percent at present. How should we interpret the changes in public support for Putin?

Feng: Certain changes have taken place in Russia's political ecology in the run-up to the presidential election. After Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin announced plans to swap roles in 2012, this drew mixed reactions and had negative effects on some voters. Although Russians' right to vote is guaranteed by the constitution, it seems the country's politics is a game with only two players.

The public support for Putin greatly slid after the parliamentary elections in December, which is also to some extent a reflection of Russians' dissatisfaction with United Russia, the ruling party, which they are increasingly turning against. But as the presidential elections are forthcoming, the Russian public has realized the importance of the elections for Russia's future and they now see Putin as the best person for the position because the other candidates lack his status.

Putin has published an unprecedented series of seven newspaper articles on several important issues of Russia, offering a blueprint for his governance and foreign policy priorities. Through those articles, Putin expressed some new ideas on governance that are adaptable to new changes in Russia, suggesting he is a "new" Putin, which has helped increase his support.

GT: Why did Putin's popularity plummet in recent years?

Feng: In an era of information and with the progress of democratization, Russia has formed an environment where the public can express their political will. Any leader, no matter from the US, the European countries or the developing countries, has to endure great pressure and challenges.

Putin created many myths when he was the Russian president, from economic development to expanded international influence. Putin declared Russia would be safe despite the global economic crisis in 2008, but the reality was different. At the end of 2008, the Russian economy had severely declined. Among the BRIC countries, Russia was hit hardest.

The economic downturn is the fundamental reason for the shifting attitude toward Putin. The halo he once enjoyed has faded away, and now Russia has to face the political reality of a no-longer godlike Putin.

GT: Russia is confronted by protests demanding greater democracy and changes to the system. Is there a risk of revolution?

Feng: The risk is there. But judging by the current political situation and the balance of power in Russia, a revolution is impossible. Unlike Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan a few years ago, where the public was strongly dissatisfied with the government, support for Putin still prevails in Russia. 

GT: If Putin is elected, can he lead Russia into political reform? Will the rising middle class, which wants reform, become his biggest challenge?

Feng: A reliable middle class hasn't been formed in Russia. The current so called middle class of Russia is the group whose financial condition improved during Putin's previous presidency.

They have stated their political appeals, including enlarging political participation, decreasing corruption, and ending the monopoly of the ruling party. The protests by the Russian middle class are aimed at social reform and changes to the system.

In fact, Putin's adjustments reflected in the seven articles have taken their appeals into consideration. For example, Putin has changed his attitude toward direct elections of regional governors, which were scrapped under his previous presidency in 2004 but the restoration of which is now being discussed. Putin is also advocating lowering the threshold for other parties to participate in politics.

GT: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fiercely criticized Russia's parliamentary election results in December and Putin strongly counterattacked verbally. If Putin becomes president again, how will the Russia-US relations change?

Feng: The improvements achieved during Medvedev's presidency in Russia-US relations are likely to end. Given Putin's possible return to Kremlin, the US criticisms on Russia have increased. The US Department of State and other US authorities are all reproaching Russian autarchy. The US wants Russia to develop in its desired direction. Russia's political situation will not be steady in the near future, Putin should stay alert to US interference in Russia's internal affairs.

One point of conflict is the argument over the missile defense issue between Russia and the US. Now the US is deploying its anti-missile shield in East Europe, if the two cannot reach an agreement over the issue, bilateral relations will deteriorate. Beside, geopolitically, the US and Russia are competing in the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union. Those conflicts suggest that the future of the Russia-US relationship is not promising.

To read more about the Putin 2.0 series, please click here: