Ren Xiao

Michael Auslin

Editor's Note:

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will begin his visit to Washington on Sunday. The two sides are expected to issue a joint statement which will lay out future policy for their alliance. Will the visit bring Japan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? What strains are there on the relationship? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Ren Xiao (Ren), professor of the Institute of International Studies and director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Foreign Policy at Fudan University, and Michael Auslin (Auslin), director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank based in Washington, on these issues.

GT: Noda is reportedly looking to announce that Japan will become a full-fledged participant in talks on framing the TPP during his trip to Washington. Meanwhile, a recent report released by US think tank RAND says that Japan's decision to join the TPP negotiations is the best way for the two to cooperate. What's your view?

Ren: As the world's third largest economy, Japan's joining the TPP will certainly boost the pact's international influence.

For the US, TPP is an important stake in wooing Japan. But can Noda balance Japan's diplomatic interests and domestic controversies? Can he offer the US what it wants? That remains to be seen.

Auslin: The TPP is crucial for Japan's economic future. The country needs an aggressive push to open up its markets and become more competitive.

But many democratically elected Japanese politicians are not willing to risk the agricultural livelihoods of their rural constituents.

Not participating in the TPP would be a mistake. The TPP can be one of the more important ways for Japan and the US to cooperate.

GT: Noda's visit is reportedly aimed at restoring US-Japan relations, which were damaged during the administration of former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. Will this visit strengthen the two's alliance?

Auslin: I think the alliance remains strong, even with all the problems it faced in 2009-10.

The extraordinary cooperation between Japan and the US after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in 2011 really highlighted the deep roots of the relationship.

It is true that the Obama administration has been frustrated by the slow movement on issues like the replacement of the Futenma military base on Okinawa, but I think it recognizes this is a unique case, and that is why both countries are trying to negotiate an acceptable settlement.

In addition, the Japanese public is very worried by North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, and has concerns about China's military growth. Thus, there is popular support for keeping the alliance strong.

It is a good sign that US President Barack Obama will meet Noda. Japan is catching up to both China and South Korea, which have had top-level visits to Washington for one-on-one meetings. In a sense, this meeting is overdue.

Ren: The US-Japan alliance has been the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy for many years and it is also the pillar of the US Asia-Pacific policy. Hatoyama's policy was to incline to Asia, which displeased Washington.

Noda, however, takes a pragmatic and prudent attitude. He knows the importance of both the US and Asia for Japan's future.

The strategic environment for the US-Japan alliance is changing. Japan's importance is diminishing from a global perspective and new powers such as China, India and Brazil are rising.

Nevertheless, disputes like that over the Okinawa base won't affect their alliance that much. Continuity will play a greater role than change.

GT: What difficulties will the US-Japan alliance face in the future? Will the benefits the alliance brings to Japan, the US and Asia as a whole outweigh the difficulties?

Auslin: The difficulties are in aligning the interests of two independent governments, both of which are democracies, and therefore have lots of pressure on them from domestic groups.

The constitutional limitations on Japan, in terms of collective self-defense and the like, make it more difficult to do all the joint military planning, training, and operation that the US would like to do.

The benefits are that the US has a very close partner in Asia which shares its democratic values and which has a very strong economy that is crucial to US economic health.

Japan provides crucial bases for the US military to maintain its forward presence in Asia, which helps keep stability and peace.

By partnering with Japan, the US is more confident of being able to respond to a crisis like North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, or to a disruption of freedom of navigation that would affect the entire world economy.

GT: Do you think Noda's visit to Washington will address China's rise?

Ren: China's rise has caused a sense of insecurity among its neighboring countries and reorganized the strategic scale in the Asia-Pacific region.

Alliances can be one way to confine China, such as a US-South Korea or US-Philippines alliance. Japan is definitely one tool for the US to confine China.

However, I don't think the timing of Noda's visit this time has anything to do with the recent Sino-Russian joint military exercise or the dispute in the South China Sea. High-level visits like this are scheduled long in advance.

Auslin: Both countries are committed to stability throughout Asia, and have worked together for many decades to provide a stabilizing presence.

As an island nation, Japan is obviously very focused on freedom of navigation and the balance of maritime power in Asia.

However, it has a very capable Maritime Self-Defense Force and Coast Guard, as well as an Air Self-Defense Force, so it is not simply dependent on US military support.

The US policy in Asia is not designed to confine China, but rather to maintain stability and security so that all countries can benefit from expanding trade and political interactions. I don't think any US alliance is aimed at confining China.