Panda

Hussain

Editor's Note:

Pakistan announced last week it had successfully launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the Indian Ocean, just days after India conducted a similar test launch of a long-range missile, the Agni-V. Will these launches trigger an arms race in Asia? How will they affect bilateral relations? Global Times reporter (GT) Yu Jincui interviewed Jagannath P. Panda (Panda), a fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses based in New Delhi, and Aftab Hussain (Hussain), an assistant Research Officer at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, on these issues.

GT: What are driving these tests?

Hussain: Pakistan didn't want to become a nuclear weapon state, but the Indian nuclear test in 1974 forced Pakistan to create a credible deterrent by acquiring nuclear weapons. Pakistan suggested a Nuclear-Weapons-Free-Zone in South Asia, but India turned a blind eye to it.

Pakistan's deterrent is credible only if it is able to counter the Indian threat. Islamabad is more focused on having friendly relations with India, but it cannot afford to compromise deterrence as well. New Delhi does not seem to comprehend the fact that such developments affect the strategic balance and force other states to follow suit.

Pakistan may adopt another method, such as tactical nuclear weapons, to counter the recent developments in India. Pakistan wants strategic balance in the region, while India wants to break out of it and pursue the path of global power.

Panda: The missile development program in both countries should be solely seen from the point of view of routine military modernization. The history of India-Pakistan relationship suggests that reactionary politics are in neither side's interests. There must be restraint on both sides.

GT: Some observers insist that India's latest missile launch is mainly targeted at the rising China. What's your view?

Hussain: There is a strategic triangle in the region, India sees China as a threat and Pakistan sees India as a threat. Existing nuclear deterrence is credible and holds the potential to remain intact for many years to come. I think China will continue its current policy toward New Delhi, which is based upon mutual interests.

Panda: Given the intricacy of China-India relations, it is obvious that any military upgrade in either country will often raise eyebrows. But officially, there is no acknowledgement in India that Agni-V is a deterrent targeted at China. There are great levels of mistrust and misunderstanding that still remain between China and India. But it is important to note that Sino-Indian relations are multi-faceted today, and the missile test is only a small incident.

GT: In early April, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari paid a private visit to India, the first trip to India by a Pakistani head of state since 2005. Both governments have been openly hopeful about their warming ties. How will the recent back-to-back launches affect the bilateral relations?

Panda: India-Pakistan relations are always a highlighted story, no matter how much political rhetoric is made to stabilize the relationship. Certainly, Zardari's visit to India is a breakthrough, given the lack of solidarity in India-Pakistan political ties.

We shouldn't connect the missile tests incidents to the bilateral discourse between India and Pakistan. These launches cause a sense of insecurity on both sides.

Yet the test of the Agni-V is based on self-defense objectives, without really targeting any third country. The test is part and parcel of India's routine military modernization program. It doesn't have a hidden agenda toward Pakistan nor toward any other third country. India's main aim in the test is to create a credible deterrent in a 21st-century nuclear world.

Hussain: The recent missile tests are just a regular exercise and I don't think it should affect the ongoing peace process.

Islamabad is working on broadening trade ties with India, which is good for both countries. Zardari also invited Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to visit our country, a gesture meant to reflect Pakistan's intention of peaceful co-existence.

Peace in South Asia rests mainly upon the Indian attitude toward its neighboring countries. India is a big country and it needs to behave like a big country as well, with a broad mind, but on the contrary India is having problems with all its smaller neighbors.

GT: Do you think the missile launches will trigger an arms race in Asia?

Panda: It is difficult to define an arms race, but yes, there are bound to be some speculation and reactions following these tests. More than these tests, it is the mistrust and sense of insecurity toward each other that compels many to think that an arms race is taking place in the region.

An arms race is also neither in the interest of any particular country nor in the interest of the region, as it brings instability to the entire region. Both India and Pakistan must take serious note of that.

Hussain: Islamabad has often said that Pakistans' nuclear weapons are just for the sake of credible deterrence against Indian nuclear weapons and are not targeted at any other country. However, Indian nuclear doctrine suggests something very different.

India is acting as a regional hegemon and intends to become a global power. India's massive defense purchases, its nuclear program, anti-ballistic missile (ABM) program and its pursuit of a seat in the UN Security Council are all part of this. In the region, India sees China as a threat and is exhausting its resources on defense to counter the so-called Chinese threat.

Pakistan's missile program is Indo-specific but Pakistan has no plans for any ABM program. If it were an arms race Pakistan would have followed a tit-for-tat policy, which is not the case. Islamabad is more focused on a credible deterrence instead of looking to get engaged in an arms race with India.