Aquino caught between rock and hard place
Editor's Note:
Philippine President Benigno Aquino III has ordered vessels to leave Huangyan Island on June 16 as tropical storm Gutchol lashed the region. The Chinese side said it hoped this action would help ease tensions. However, Aquino announced Thursday that Manila may redeploy ships soon. How should we evaluate these statements by the Philippines? How can the dispute be solved? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Zhaokun talked to Stefan Halper (Halper), director of American Studies in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge, Ji Qiufeng (Ji), a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, and Yuan Jingdong (Yuan), an associate professor at the Centre for International Security Studies with the University of Sydney, on these issues.
GT: How do you see the Philippines withdrawing its vessels from Huangyan Island due to the weather? If the Philippines redeploys ships to the area, will this further complicate the row?
Halper: I believe that the main objective of the Philippines' pulling vessels out is to protect its property and fishermen. But of course it also has an additional effect of easing the tensions. The Philippines will probably redeploy their ships to the area after the tropical storm leaves, to show the seriousness of its claims over Huangyan Island.
Ji: The statements made by Aquino and Department of Foreign Affairs spokesman Raul Hernandez were aimed at impressing the international community that Huangyan Island is Philippine territory and it can decide whether to deploy ships there or not. This will definitely be rejected by China. It is likely that the Philippines will redeploy ships in order to damage China's sovereignty.
Yuan: The typhoon and the withdrawal provide an opportunity to come to some understanding. But if the Philippines redeploys its ships afterward, then the issue will reemerge.
Given the difference in power, the Philippines will find it harder to sustain a prolonged standoff, especially since Aquino's recent trip to the US has not secured the kind of guarantees he sought. Whether Manila will redeploy ships depends on this assessment and whether Aquino is under tremendous domestic pressure to do so.
Once he has stirred up nationalist sentiments, Aquino will be trapped in a situation from which he is unable to back down.
GT: If the Philippines' row with China continues, is Aquino likely to face mounting domestic pressure and differences within the Philippine government over the issue?
Ji: There definitely are different opinions among the Philippine public and the government over how to deal with this issue. However, it is important for us to know that such differences are unlikely to make Manila back down.
Aquino is criticized at home by some for being used by the US to confront China. But politicians in the Philippines will still use the row over Huangyan Island as a way to woo public support by voicing a strong stance.
Yuan: There are already reports about how negatively certain sectors of the Philippine economy have been affected. Prolonged stagnation reduces the numbers of Chinese tourists and imports of Philippine agricultural produce and will likely lead to domestic complaints.
Depending on the domestic balance of power, there will be growing pressure for the government to seek a way out. I would say Aquino is in a bind right now. He cannot just give up without losing face, but nor can he continue a policy that has no prospect of leading anywhere.
GT: China has been insisting on solving the standoff through dialogue and repeatedly urged the Philippines to take actions to ease tensions. Do you think China's diplomatic efforts have largely prevented the situation from escalating?
Yuan: China's positions are well-known although the regional responses vary. This is understandable given that China is larger than the other claimant states in the South China Sea. That is why ASEAN has been keen on nudging China toward a more binding code of conduct or at the minimum to implement the 2002 Joint Declaration of Conduct by parties to the dispute.
I think the events in the past few have undermined China's diplomatic positions, even though China itself has only responded to developments deemed to be undermining its sovereignty in the South China Sea. This is a challenge for China as it becomes a great power to manage relationships with smaller Asian neighbors.
Halper: China in May withdrew some of its vessels from the area to alleviate tensions. The Philippine side is also under pressure from the US to not let this situation escalate.
It is true that the situation is a potentially explosive one, but I think it can be managed. If we accept that there will finally be some kind of negotiation and reconciliation to take us forward and the issue is not subject to a military solution, we will find a way out.
GT: There are comments by the Philippine media saying that unless China takes back Huangyan Island by force, there will be repeated standoffs in the future. What's your view?
Yuan: There is some truth to this if Manila thinks this is the way to go. It would not be wise for China to take the island by force right now. But would Manila gain anything in keeping the issue alive and continuing with the standoff?
Over time, the only way I can think of keeping the issue under control is to come to some understanding over fishing and other resource development issues while also seeking to find the best ways to address sovereignty and territorial matters.
Halper: It might be exciting for certain corners of the public sphere to imagine a battle between China and the Philippines, but this is definitely not a choice one wants to use for political purposes.
My perception is that all parties at the moment are mindful of such dangers and interested in finding a regular process to prevent any kind of conflict.